Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:30 FOCUS LIST: IGV, ISRG, META, TSM, PLTR, AVGO, RKLB, NVDA
4) 9:40 Trade Updates: BKSY, FOUR, WIX
5) 11:05 NINE TRADE IDEAS FROM 2/16 WEEKEND VIDEO: IGV, RKLB, RBRK, ACHR, NTRA, VST, EXE, LUNR, BE
6) 15:40 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: ASTS, PL, NET, KVYO, KD, CRWD, SPOT, UBER, CAVA, BPMC, NRG, CEG, DXPE, Z, EQT, WMB
7) 21:45 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
We’ve been in a range over the past 4-6 weeks. The question I have posed in recent videos is: Are we going to break out of this range to the upside? Or to the downside? I mentioned that I didn’t know and I wanted to wait for more clarity. Over the past week, more positive signs emerged: 1) We saw two follow through-type days last Monday and Thursday. That’s a great sign because it’s showing that institutions are coming back into the market. 2) Considering all the negative headlines (tariffs, CPI, Retail Sales, etc.), the markets have been incredibly resilient. 3) The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 continue to hold above their respective 50-day moving averages. 4) We haven’t seen any distribution days since that first big accumulation day of the year on February 10.
From here, I’m still not 100% convinced that we will see a new, sustained powertrend over the next 6-12 weeks. I’m definitely open-minded to it, but what’s holding me back is the upcoming weaker seasonality. One possibility is that we break higher out of this range, but we continue to see higher volatility. In other words, a choppy, zig-zag pattern to the upside. Another scenario is that we continue to consolidate in a range while individual stocks still perform well. Either way, I’m definitely not bearish with the major indexes near new highs. If the majority of recent trade ideas I presented start to work, that would give me positive feedback that a new powertrend could emerge. Again, I will take this day-by-day, see how these ideas work out, and continue to observe the overall market. Thank you and good luck for the rest of the week.
Unusual Options Activity:
2/19/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large opening seller of 2500 June 2026 $560 ITM puts at $48.87 as Jan $550 short puts adjust
2/19/25 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyers of 5000 March 31st $230 calls at $3.69 as $240 calls adjust
2/19/25 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 5000 Jan 2027 $225/$265 call spreads at $17.73
2/19/25 Gold ETF(GLD) 11,000 May $250 puts sell to open $1.57
2/19/25 Tesla (TSLA) 3000 July $400 short puts opening as Feb $410 adjust
2/19/25 Tesla (TSLA) also seeing massive opening sales 8000 June $370 puts for $47
2/19/25 Nike (NKE) 1800 December 87.50 calls bought $5.45
2/19/25 Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) with 400 June $170 puts sell to open at $14.50
2/19/25 Wayfair (W) 1000 Jan 2027 $30 puts sell to open 5.65
2/19/25 AppLovin (APP) buyers of 350 Sept $500 calls at $109.30 to $111.30
2/19/25 Expedia (EXPE) buyers of 3000 March $220 calls at $1.75 to $2.20
2/19/25 Airbnb (ABNB) 1200 Sept $210 calls bought $3.25
2/19/25 Uber (UBER) 1200 Sept $90 calls buying at $6.45 offer
2/19/25 Devon Energy (DVN) 3000 Nov $40 puts sell to open $5.00
2/19/25 GEO Group (GEO) buyer of 1200 Jan 2027 $50 calls at $4.70
2/19/25 Mastercard (MA) sees 550 April $565/$595 call spreads bought at $14
2/19/25 Deutsche Bank (DB) 2750 March $21 calls buy 0.60 offer
2/19/25 Redfin (RDFN) buyer of 6000 March $9 calls at $1.02 offer
2/19/25 Tempus AI (TEM) buyers 1500 March $100 calls $5.40 to $6.10, reports 2-24
2/19/25 Tempus AI (TEM) buyers of 2800 March $110 calls at $4.30 to $4.60 in large lots
2/19/25 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) 1100 March $320 calls bought $36
2/19/25 Alibaba (BABA) buyer of 1500 June 2027 $250 calls at $10.85 to $12.25, max strike and expiration
2/19/25 Alibaba (BABA) also seeing 1100 June 2027 $125/$250 call spreads bought at $25.50
2/19/25 Micron (MU) 2250 Jan $100 puts being sold 14.40 to 14.20
2/19/25 Meta (META) opening sale 900 April 4th (W) $635 puts for $7.17
2/19/25 Meta (META) seeing 1000 Jan 2027 $1350 calls bought at $24.75 as some of the large $1250 calls adjust
2/19/25 Palantir (PLTR) March 7th (W) seeing sellers in $130 calls and buyers in the $120 puts 3000X
2/19/25 Palantir (PLTR) sees 700 May $120 puts sell to open for $14.80
2/19/25 On Semi (ON) buyer 5500 August $70 calls for $2.05 adjusting $60 strike
2/19/25 Oracle (ORCL) buyer 1000 September $220 calls $7.55
2/19/25 Broadcom (AVGO) 600 August $160 puts sell to open 3.65
2/19/25 Broadcom (AVGO) also 400 March 2026 $200 puts sell to open $22.20
2/19/25 Nebius Group (NBIS) buyers of 1500 March $49 calls at $5.70 to $6.10
2/19/25 Constellation Energy (CEG) 1500 April 4th (W) $260 puts sell to open 2.75
2/19/25 Vertiv (VRT) 400 May $105 puts sold to open $10.05
2/19/25 NuScale Power (SMR) 3000 Feb 28th $23/$18 bull risk reversals open at $0.61 debit, adjusting Feb 21st spreads
2/18/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 4700 March 7th $545 calls sell to open $5.39
2/18/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 2000 March 28th $555/$560 call spreads bought at $1.55
2/18/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also seeing 2000 May $590/$480 bull risk reversals open at $1.95 credit
2/18/25 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large buyers of 2600 July $585 ITM calls at $45.20 as Feb $615 calls adjust
2/18/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) opening sellers of 3000 March $52 puts at $1.93
2/18/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) also an opening seller of 2k Sept $48 puts at $5.76
2/18/25 China ETF (FXI) large buyers of 19,000 April $40 calls at $0.59, also buys 13K May $40 calls at $0.86
2/18/25 China Internet ETF (KWEB) buyer over 9000 April $36/$43 call spreads at $1.69
2/18/25 South Korea ETF (EWY) unusual buyers of 4500 April $60 calls at $1.30
2/18/25 Materials ETF (XLB) buyer 4000 June $95 calls $1.54
2/18/25 Roblox (RBLX) buyer 1000 May $70/$80 call spreads for $3
2/18/25 Pepsi (PEP) 400 Sept $145 calls buy 7.10
2/18/25 Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) buyer 500 March $200 calls at $2.80
2/18/25 AppLovin (APP) sees 700 April $460 ITM calls selling to open $82 to $79.50
2/18/25 AppLovin (APP) also large buyer for 1000 March 14th $540 calls at $28
2/18/25 DoorDash (DASH) opening sales of 850 March 28th $215 puts at $10.10
2/18/25 DoorDash (DASH) late day large buyer of 1000 Sept $230 calls at $20.60
2/18/25 Airbnb (ABNB) sees 625 July $200 calls buy 3.60 offer
2/18/25 Wix.com (WIX) sees 1100 Nov $200 puts sell to open $19.90
2/18/25 Netflix (NFLX) 975 April $1060 calls bought $55 to $56
2/18/25 Home Depot (HD) opening seller of 3500 April $440 calls at $3.55
2/18/25 Bank America (BAC) 3000 August $45 puts sell to open 2.27
2/18/25 Robinhood Markets (HOOD) opening seller of 1000 August $100 calls at $3.25 to $3.10
2/18/25 Blackstone (BX) with 1885 Sept $210 calls bought $3.15
2/18/25 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) 750 July $75 way OTM calls buy 3.80 offers
2/18/25 Eli Lilly (LLY) seeing buyers of 350 August $860 calls at $87.60 to $90
2/18/25 Recursion Pharma (RXRX) seeing 2900 March $14 calls bought at $0.90 to $0.95
2/18/25 Intuitive Machines (LUNR) with 1000 January $27 calls buying for $7.60
2/18/25 GE Vernova (GEV) buyer 500 April $390 calls $23.20, adjusts Feb
2/18/25 GE Vernova (GEV) also opening seller of 1500 March 28th $335 puts at $7.82 as the Feb $370 short puts adjust
2/18/25 Deere (DE) buyers of 300 Jan 2027 $470 calls at $94 to $95.70
2/18/25 Broadcom (AVGO) block of 3500 March 14th $180 puts sell to open at $1.23
2/18/25 Baidu (BIDU) 1000 March 7th $88 puts sell to open $2.49 bids
2/18/25 Nvidia (NVDA) spread sells 3600 Jan $122 puts $13.95 and buys 2400 Jan $160 calls $21.80
2/18/25 Apple (AAPL) large buyer of 1300 June 2027 $350 calls at $11.55 offer
2/18/25 Amazon (AMZN) opening sale 600 January 2027 $195 puts for 17.55
2/18/25 Snowflake (SNOW) 1375 April 160 puts sold to open 4.45
2/18/25 Dell (DELL) buyer of 1400 April $155 calls at $1.39, reports 2/27
2/18/25 Constellation Energy (CEG) 2500 April 4th (W) $255 puts sell to open 2.80
2/18/25 Vistra (VST) opening seller of 1800 April $130/$100 bull put spreads at $2.68
Archer Aviation (ACHR) The small cap aerospace name saw large buyers last week for over 12,000 March $12 calls bought at $1.00 to $1.05 with IV surging on 2/14. The call buyers are likely positioning for a breakout from this range ahead of or after its earnings report due on 2/27. Also, popular last week were 5000 July $14 calls bought at $1.50 which could pay off big if the name sees continuation higher into Springtime. On 2/3, we also saw 2275 January 2027 $20 calls bought $2.60 for over $590K in long term bets seeing larger upside. ACHR has seen mostly bullish option flows since mid-December when it took off higher and still has 13,000 January $15 calls in open interest that bought on 12/16 as well as 6500 April $6 ITM calls bought on 12/13. The $5.2B small cap hyper growth aerospace company trades at 140x FY25 sales and 30x FY26 projected sales with revenue at $37.4M in FY25 and revenue growth estimated at +393% in FY26 to $184.5M in sales. Archer Aviation Inc. engages in designs, develops, and operates electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for use in urban air mobility. ACHR raised $301.75 million from investors this month to accelerate its hybrid aircraft platform and further reinforcing Archer’s strong financial position. Leading institutional investors participated in this financing, including funds and accounts managed by BlackRock. This raise brings Archer’s total liquidity position to $1B. Archer has long maintained one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, and this additional capital further strengthens its position. Shares have been surging since the election and up nearly 200% while the past 6 weeks have mostly formed a high tight flag pattern above its rising 55 day EMA now at 8.60. MACD triggering a bullish cross the past few days and looking poised to breakout of the range for a move to $12 short term while fib extensions higher would see 14-15. The early 2021 highs of 18.60 would then become in focus this year for a retest as the company has momentum and a strong capital position that should point to several years of rapid growth ahead. Average analyst price target is $11.25 with a Street high of $15. Canaccord has a $13 target and Buy rating as it cites the recent equity capital raise and believes it confirms their thesis that Archer’s partnership with Anduril opens the door to a much larger TAM opportunity for the company. Needham is a bull and sees a $3B-plus early-stage air taxi revenue opportunity for the company, driven by a conservative share of airport and commute travel, backed by a compelling use case given shorter trip times versus currently available, higher end airport travel options. Short interest is 9.3% and has decreased from over 17% in December. Hedge fund ownership rose 33%. Ark Investments increased its stake by 6.37 million shares and now owns nearly 30 million shares or about 7.7% ownership.