Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:55 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, ISRG, META, TSM, ONON, TSLA, PLTR, AVGO, RKLB
4) 13:40 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NOW, CRM, MSFT, APP, FTNT, CYBR, RBRK, NET, KD, PSTG, DOCS, GDDY, TEAM, TWLO
5) 20:05 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), SMTC, MRVL, ALAB, ANET, CRDO, NVMI
6) 22:55 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: NTRA, VRT, VST, CEG, NRG, GEV, SEI, BE, OKLO, NNE, WIX, CLS, LUNR, RDW, PL, HWM, EQT, WMB, EXE, SPOT, FOUR, BROS, DECK, HOOD, RDDT, NBIS, MSTR, COIN, SFM, GEO, YPF
7) 36:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Over the past two weeks, the price action in the Nasdaq Composite has improved tremendously. The index not only regained its 50-day moving average, but it also saw a Day 4 follow through day on Friday, January 17. Since then, the index has held above its 50-day and many growth stocks continue to act well. Now, the big question is: Are we about to begin a new uptrend/powertrend breakout? Or are the major indexes going to meet resistance and stall out near their mid-December highs? For me, the answer is I don’t know. I have no problem being patient until we get more clarity. That clarity is likely to come from the Fed this Wednesday. Just a reminder that the Fed meets every 6 weeks and this Wednesday’s comments are likely to give us more clarity as to the next direction of the market.
The recent corrective action started on December 18, 2024 when Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed was close to the end of their current rate-cutting cycle. Since then, President Trump has voiced his wish for lower interest rates not only because it’s helpful overall for the economy and for lending, but also to stay competitive with other countries who have much lower interest rates. If the Fed’s comments are dovish, then I could see a new sustained powertrend. If they are hawkish, the market is likely to stall out. Oh yeah, in addition to all this, we have earnings from Apple, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and many other large caps this week. Bottom line: stay flexible, stay nimble, and of course know your timeframe. Overall, the market health has improved over the past two weeks and don’t forget the bigger backdrop that we’re still in a bull market. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
1/24/25 Financials ETF (XLF) 87,000 Dec $55 calls bought as Sept 49 calls adjust out and up
1/24/25 Financials ETF (XLF) also opening seller 10,000 June $46 puts 0.58
1/24/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) seeing buyers 5000 Feb 28th (W) $530 puts
1/24/25 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 2500 Feb 7th (W) $44 calls being bought up to $1.40 with earnings 1-29
1/24/25 Toast (TOST) size buyer 5000 March $43 calls $2.26, reports 2-19
1/24/25 Wayfair (W) 3000 May $50 calls buying $7.10 to $7.50 looking to add to OI
1/24/25 JD.com (JD) with 2700 May $39 calls bought $1.3M
1/24/25 Bloom Energy (BE) 1000 July $40 OTM calls bought $3.30
1/24/25 Chevron (CVX) 2000 Sept 165 calls sold to open for 6.35
1/24/25 Coinbase (COIN) sweep buy 1000 March 7th (W) $400 calls
1/24/25 Coinbase (COIN) buyers in Feb $350 calls as well 3000X at $12.70 look to add to OI
1/24/25 Coinbase (COIN) also a buy of 1000 Feb 14th (W) $320 calls today for $2M+
1/24/25 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 800 Sept $290 puts sold to open for $4.7M
1/24/25 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) large opening sale 1500 March 2026 $450 puts $16.40
1/24/25 Thermo Fisher (TMO) opening sale 1070 March $550 puts for $9.10
1/24/25 Amgen (AMGN) 1900 Feb 7th (W) 282.5 calls sell to open 4.10
1/24/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) March $40 calls with 2000X bought $3.25 offers
1/24/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 615 Sept $33 puts sold to open ITM for 9.90
1/24/25 Planet Labs (PL) another Space play seeing buyers of 8500 July 9 calls this morning
1/24/25 Vertiv (VRT) 1000 Feb $143 puts sell to open $6.45
1/24/25 Vertiv (VRT) 4895 Feb 28th (W) $95 puts sell to open 0.93
1/24/25 Meta (META) buyer 38,500 Jan 2027 $1250 calls $23.47 as the Jan 2026 $1030 adjust
1/24/25 Broadcom (AVGO) seeing 1875 April $280 calls bought up to $10.15 offers
1/24/25 Palantir (PLTR) 1250 Feb $87 calls buy 4.65 offer
1/24/25 Palantir (PLTR) seeing one of those call sweep algos with May $105, $110, $115, and $120 calls bought for $7.5M net
1/24/25 Micron (MU) 6350 Feb 28th (W) 90 puts sold to open 0.82
1/24/25 Okta (OKTA) 450 March $92.5 calls bought $5.10 offer
1/24/25 Arm Holdings (ARM) 1650 Sept $220 calls sold to open for 16.20
1/24/25 Arm Holdings (ARM) 250 Jan 175 puts sold to open 37.94
1/24/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyers of 20,000 Feb 7th (W) $225 calls and 4000 of the $227.5 calls
1/24/25 Microsoft (MSFT) 12,000 Dec $405 short puts opening with June $380 adjusting
1/24/25 Apple (AAPL) large buyer 1500 Feb 14th (W) $215 ITM calls $11.65 offer
1/24/25 Apple (AAPL) 4000 June 2026 $240 calls sold to open down to 23.05
1/24/25 Nvidia (NVDA) with 20,000 Feb 7th (W) $146 calls bought
1/24/25 Nvidia (NVDA) seller to open 1000 Mar 2026 $110 puts 10.20
1/24/25 Astera Labs (ALAB) 1000 Jan $75 puts sold to open 8.60
1/24/25 Oracle (ORCL) 500 August $195 calls bought $14.60
1/24/25 Cloudflare (NET) 1750 May $155 calls sold to open 5.15 to 5.10
1/24/25 Constellation Energy (CEG) 2500 June $280 short puts open $14 as June 200 adjust
1/23/25 Ultra Nasdaq 100 ETF (TQQQ) buyers of 2000 Feb 14th $88 calls at $3.69 to $3.80
1/23/25 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) opening seller of 570 Jan 2027 $410 puts at $16.25
1/23/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) large opening sales of 6600 August $90 calls at $4.70 to $4.25
1/23/25 Uranium ETF (URA) sees buyers of 2300 April $33 calls at $1.35 offer sweeps
1/23/25 Financials ETF (XLF) large block of 15,500 June $54 calls bought at $0.88 offer
1/23/25 McDonald’s (MCD) opening sales of 300 June 2026 $260 puts at $13.85
1/23/25 Target (TGT) buyer 250 Jan 2027 $135 calls $24 to $24.25
1/23/25 Airbnb (ABNB) bull flow continues with 1500 February $131 calls bought $7.80, also seen size recent put sales
1/23/25 Airbnb (ABNB) with 1000 August $135 calls bought $15.37 to $15.40
1/23/25 Airbnb (ABNB) also with 2000 March $130 puts sold to open for 6.50
1/23/25 Netflix (NFLX) buyers of 600 April $1000 calls at $48.15 to $54.60
1/23/25 EQT (EQT) with 5000 Jan 2027 $80 calls being bought to open as Jan. 2026 $65 calls adjust out and up
1/23/25 Bloom Energy (BE) with buyers of 2500 March $29 calls $3.10 to $3.30
1/23/25 American Express (AXP) 5000 Jan 2027 $430 calls buying as more Jan 2026 $320 calls adjust
1/23/25 Natera (NTRA) buyers of 1000 Feb $175 calls at $7.70 sweeps
1/23/25 Boston Scientific (BSX) trade opens 11,700 March $105/$92.5 bull risk reversals at $1.05 debit
1/23/25 CorMedix (CRMD) buyers of 2800 Feb $12 calls at $1.25 to $1.30
1/23/25 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) buyer 350 March $610 calls 24.95
1/23/25 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) buy 200 April $300 calls $54.60
1/23/25 GE Vernova (GEV) opening seller of 2000 Feb $390 puts at $5.50 bids
1/23/25 GE Vernova (GEV) 1250 March $410 calls opening for $6M as some April positions adjust
1/23/25 Fluor (FLR) another 2500 Feb $52.50 calls buying $4.60 offer sweeps
1/23/25 Dell (DELL) buyers of 2000 April $110 ITM calls at $12.80
1/23/25 CrowdStrike (CRWD) opening sale of 750 June $500 calls at $10.80
1/23/25 MongoDB (MDB) 1250 March $210 puts sell to open $5.66
1/23/25 Twilio (TWLO) more bull flow seeing 975 April $110 puts sell to open 9.35 to 8.95
1/23/25 Arm Holdings (ARM) seeing buyers of 2000 June $210 calls at $12.45 to $12.85
1/23/25 Rigetti Computing (RGTI) 4000 May $10 puts selling to open 2.80
1/23/25 Seagate (STX) large opening sale 750 June $105 puts $7
1/23/25 Lam Research (LRCX) trade opens 4000 May $85/$72 bull risk reversals for $2.79
1/23/25 Marvell Tech (MRVL) similar to LRCX flows seeing 4950 May $140/$100 bull risk reversals open at $5.90 debit
1/23/25 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyers of 3300 Feb 7th $130 calls at $2.42 to $2.55
1/23/25 Workday (WDAY) opening seller of 1250 Feb 28th $220 puts at $2.27 as weekly $250 short puts adjust
1/23/25 Vistra (VST) 2000 Feb $205 calls open 8.86 as Feb. 190 adjust again
1/23/25 Constellation Energy (CEG) 1000 Feb $400 calls bought $5.20 to $5.50
1/23/25 Vertiv (VRT) buyer of 900 July $135 ITM calls for $32.95
1/23/25 Oklo (OKLO) buyers late day of 2200 March $46 calls at $5.30 to $5.40
1/23/25 Google (GOOGL) bull flow in Feb 7th (W) earnings week with buyers 1400 of the $197.50 calls
1/23/25 Google (GOOGL) opening seller 1000 of the $197.5 puts $7.15 that bought 1000 of the $205 calls $3.97 in a risk reversal