Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:05 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 9:55 BONUS CONTENT: Varying Investment Levels
4) 15:45 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, ISRG, META, TSM, ONON, TSLA, PLTR, AVGO, RKLB
5) 27:10 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NOW, APP, FTNT, CYBR, RBRK, CRM, DOCS, TWLO, NET, KD, DAVE, INOD
6) 32:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), SMTC, MRVL, ALAB, AAOI, CRDO
7) 34:05 Stock Review – Biotech and Medical Products: XBI (ETF) TARS, NAMS, ENSC, LSTA, VYNE, NTRA, WGS
8) 38:00 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: VRT, VST, CEG, NRG, BE, OKLO, NNE, WIX, CLS, HON, Z, XMTR, FOUR, LUNR, RDW, GEV, HWM, NFLX, EXPE, GEO, YPF, AXON, SPOT, BROS, SHAK, DECK, UAA, RDDT, HOOD, SEI, AMZN, TW
9) 47:45 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
The 2025 Preview Video is now posted on the site. The main theme is KEEP YOUR EXPECTATIONS REALISTIC for 2025!
If I had to sum up my current market view as concisely as possible: There are tons of growth stocks acting well. These stocks have strong fundamentals and strong technicals, BUT the weight of the market is a concern. Why is it a concern? Because 4 out of 5 stocks move in the general direction of the market. Why is there weight on the market? I have no idea. No one does. My guess is over the past few weeks, the market has been adjusting for a Fed that is approaching the end of their current rate cutting cycle. Again, who cares, just focus on what the market is doing. Current Market Positives: 1) The Nasdaq Composite is still above its 50-day moving average. 2) Many of the growth leaders are still in strong uptrends and above their key moving averages. Current Negatives: 1) The overall market breadth is weak, as the NYSE Composite, Russell 2000 (IWM), and MidCap 400 (MDY) are all below their 50-days. 2) The Nasdaq Composite has seen 7 distribution days in the past 18 trading days.
What’s the conclusion from all this? I’m doing my best to stick with the leading growth winners and cut losses on any of my weaker positions. I still think the market can grind higher into mid-January, but as always, I will take this day-by-day. Whether it goes higher or sees weakness, I plan on continuing to reduce my exposure over the next two weeks because I am expecting a pullback/chop/sideways action/increased volatility in the first quarter, especially after the Presidential Inauguration and January OpEx. I am currently 70% invested, but I’m not sure how much I will reduce my exposure over the near-term. I take about 5 minutes in this video to discuss varying your investment levels. 1) It’s not for everyone and 2) There isn’t a solution that works universally for everyone. As I always say, do what works for your timeframe, risk tolerance, and overall investment plan. I do my best to give you transparency into what I’m doing, but I always encourage members to make their OWN decisions based on your personal situation. Thank you and see you on Tuesday, January 7th for the next MidWeek Video. Just a friendly reminder that the US stock market is closed on Thursday, January 9th.
Unusual Option Activity:
1/3/25 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) opening sales of 1250 Feb $439 calls at $3.40 bids
1/3/25 Utilities ETF (XLU) buyer of 5000 March $80 calls at $1.53
1/3/25 Costco (COST) with 200 March $930 calls bought for $37
1/3/25 Tesla (TSLA) good sized buys of 3000 Jan 24th $400 calls at $18
1/3/25 Tesla (TSLA) also 1000 Jan 31st $430/435 call spreads bought
1/3/25 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 3500 April $500 calls bought
1/3/25 Uber (UBER) buyer 5500 Sept 70/85 call spreads
1/3/25 GEO Group (GEO) big bull trade opens 5000 Jan 2026 $35/$25 bull risk reversals for $1.15 debit
1/3/25 First Solar (FSLR) opening sellers of 3000 June $220 calls at $15.75 to $15.60
1/3/25 EQT (EQT) seeing Jan $48 calls close 28K contracts and opens 23,500 Feb $50 calls also selling 11,870 of the Feb $44 puts
1/3/25 EQT (EQT) also buyers of 1000 Jan 2027 $47 calls at $11.05 in size lots
1/3/25 Exxon (XOM) seeing opening sales of 2750 Feb 7th $107 puts at $2.89, reports that week
1/3/25 Robinhood (HOOD) sees 900×1800 March $33/ $41 call ratios opening at $0.50 credits
1/3/25 Gilead Sciences (GILD) 1050 May $92.50 calls sold to open 5.55 to 5.45
1/3/25 Honeywell (HON) buyer 5000 Feb 240/250 call spreads
1/3/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock replacements sell to open 1100 July $26 puts for $6.75
1/3/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) seeing buyers of 1900 Jan $28.50 calls for $1.88 offers
1/3/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) seeing late day buyers of 1300 Sept $42 max strike calls at $6.00
1/3/25 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1700 Feb 7th $135/$145 call spreads bought $1.78
1/3/25 Rigetti Computing (RGTI) buyers of 1800 May $38 max strike calls at $4.00 to $4.25, some adjusting from $30 calls
1/3/25 Palantir (PLTR) buyers of 3000 Jan 24th (W) $89 calls $0.85 offer
1/3/25 Microsoft (MSFT) with 1470 Jan 10th (W) $420 calls bought
1/3/25 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buyers in Feb $161 calls 15,000X
1/3/25 Nvidia (NVDA) also seeing 20,000 Feb $159 calls bought, looks like one of those Algo moves across Feb OTM call strikes
1/3/25 Nvidia (NVDA) saw over 6000 June $138 puts selling to open for $15.50 in large lots, over $9M in premium sold
1/3/25 Nvidia (NVDA) also buyers of 1950 Jan 31st $139 calls at $9.70 offers
1/3/25 Nvidia (NVDA) also an interesting buyer of 1100 Jan 2026 $235 far OTM calls at $9.55 to $10 offers
1/3/25 Google (GOOG) 2300 July $145 calls deep ITM opening $12M position as Jan 140 adjust
1/3/25 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 400 July $430 calls $29.05
1/3/25 IonQ (IONQ) max strike April $70 calls being bought $6.85 in stock replacements
1/3/25 Apple (AAPL) buyers of 3800 April $285 calls at $1.09 offers
1/3/25 Arm Holdings (ARM) sees 800 April $160 calls bought $8.35 to $9.50 with some spreads selling vs $200 calls at $2.85
1/3/25 Palo Alto (PANW) buyers of 440 July $200 calls at $14.30
1/3/25 Gitlab (GTLB) sees 1000 June $70 calls bought at $4.70 offers
1/3/25 Credo Tech Group (CRDO) buyer of 2100 Feb $75 calls at $5.80 as the Jan $50 calls take profits and adjust higher
1/3/25 Vistra (VST) early buyers 2000 Feb $200 calls $2.65 to $2.90
1/3/25 NRG Energy (NRG) seeing 600 Feb 95 calls adjust up to $100 strike
1/2/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Feb 7th (W) $495 puts sold to open 1200X 8.18
1/2/25 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opening sellers of 10,000 Jan 31st $545 puts at $1.40 to $1.27
1/2/25 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) massive opening seller of 5000 May $220 puts at $9.19 as the Feb short puts adjust
1/2/25 Nvidia 2x Long ETF (NVDL) unusual buyers of 1000 Feb $100 calls at $1.63 to $1.69
1/2/25 Robotics and AI ETF (BOTZ) unusual trade buys 3000 March $32 calls at $1.60. Top holdings NVDA, ISRG, ABBN, DT, PEGA
1/2/25 Oil ETF (USO) buyers of 1600 Feb $77 calls at $3.15
1/2/25 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 4000 June $145 calls bought $6.78
1/2/25 Tesla (TSLA) confident trade sold 1000 April $355 puts to open $34.76 into weakness
1/2/25 Target (TGT) 250 June 2026 $140 puts sold to open 19.15 to 19.65
1/2/25 Walmart (WMT) 7400 April $87.5 puts sell to open $3.17
1/2/25 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) 340 Feb $205 puts sell to open 12.50 to 12.70
1/2/25 Uber (UBER) buyer of 1000 Feb 7th $70 calls at $1.27
1/2/25 Cheniere Energy (LNG) 1320 June $220 calls bought $17.30 to $17.35 looking to add to recent buyer OI
1/2/25 EQT (EQT) 1700 Jan 24th $46 puts sell to open $1.35 to $1.17
1/2/25 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) buyers of 650 Feb 7th $465 calls at $4.20 to $4.70
1/2/25 Bank America (BAC) size opening sale 7500 August $40 puts $1.70
1/2/25 AstraZeneca (AZN) buyer 5000 March $72.5 calls $0.92
1/2/25 Pfizer (PFE) with 3300 June $27 puts selling to open at $2.01 as Januarys adjust
1/2/25 GE Vernova (GEV) 1000 Feb $360 calls sold to open for 15.11
1/2/25 Deere (DE) with 1000 Sept $370 puts sold to open $14.15
1/2/25 Caterpillar (CAT) opening sale 500 Sept $310 puts for $11.78, same month as the DE put seller
1/2/25 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 1000 Feb 14th $137 calls at $9.25 offer
1/2/25 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 2000 June $181 calls 7.20 offer sweep
1/2/25 Nvidia (NVDA) next week $136 puts being sold in size lots at $3.35 bids
1/2/25 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 1175 April $255 calls $4.60 offer
1/2/25 Amazon (AMZN) with 325 July $200 ITM calls bought at $34.75 to $36.60 as some Feb $175 calls adjust
1/2/25 IonQ (IONQ) large opening sale 3000 Feb $40 puts for $6.50
1/2/25 Dell (DELL) buyers of 2000 Sept $130 calls at $11.95 to $12 and sells 800 of the $170 calls against at $3.75
1/2/25 Dell (DELL) also 600 Sept $125 calls buy 14.03 to open
1/2/25 Palantir (PLTR) buyer 1000 August $120 calls $5.30 offer, max strike
1/2/25 Broadcom (AVGO) over 4000 Feb $240 puts selling to open at $16.50 to $14 bids
1/2/25 D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) buyer 500 Jan 2027 $4 calls $6.90 offer sweep
1/2/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 450 July $200 calls for $26
1/2/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 850 July $165 puts sold to open for $7.25
1/2/25 Meta (META) size lot buyers in Jan $610 calls trading 9000X $11.50 to $12.50
1/2/25 Meta (META) 1000 April $700 calls bought 13.72 to 15.30
1/2/25 Meta (META) buyer 100 Jan 2027 $640 calls $123.30
1/2/25 Meta (META) also seeing 900 April $620 calls bought for $3.5M
1/2/25 Marvell Tech (MRVL) 1500 March $125 calls bought 7.10, look to add to OI
1/2/25 Mobileye (MBLY) 2000 Jan $20 puts sell to open 1.30
1/2/25 Salesforce (CRM) buyer of 2000 Jan 10th (W) 342.5/355 call spreads
1/2/25 Twilio (TWLO) 1000 Jan 24th (W) $110 calls bought as Jan calls adjust
1/2/25 Ondas Holdings (ONDS) trading 6000 June $2.50 calls at $1.25
1/2/25 Vistra (VST) buyers of 600 March $110 deep ITM calls at $42 to $43, over $2.5M
1/2/25 Vistra (VST) also sees 500 Jan 2026 $150 puts sell to open $33