Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 9:20 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, LLY, MSFT, ISRG, META, ONON, VRT
4) 15:25 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NOW, ORCL, PANW, CHKP, FTNT, CVLT, GWRE, APP, DOCS
5) 18:15 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, TSM, PI, ARM
6) 19:15 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF) TARS, CRNX, APGE, VKTX, HALO, NTRA, PRCT, CDNA
7) 22:35 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: NFLX, TSLA, UBER, COHR, FOUR, ASTS, RKLB, LUNR, CRMD, CWAN, SFM, CAVA, SG, TXRH, FTAI, HWM, GE, SPOT, PLTR, NEE, NRG, VST, CEG, AXON, TGLS, MSTR
8) 31:15 Stocks Near Buyable Ranges: NVDA, ISRG, NTRA, CWAN, FTNT
9) 34:15 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Over the past two weeks, I’ve discussed the same theme: We’re in a bull market, so please keep it simple and don’t overthink things. I understand that the news is depressing (technically, when is it not?), but if the news is affecting your investments you have two choices: 1) Turn it off. 2) Learn to watch the news and be mentally tough. In other words, learn to not let it affect your interpretation of the market. I am bullish in Q4 for the following reasons: 1) The technicals are strong, as we are in a power trend. 2) Seasonality. November and December are statistically two of the stronger months. 3) There are so many stocks acting well and I discuss many of them in these videos.
Over the near-term, I am still expecting some consolidation. That doesn’t mean that the market can’t go higher. I’m just using the probabilities around the Jewish holiday. Bottom line, even if we see some chop/volatility, I’m not expecting any significant downside. After that, I could see the market continue its current powertrend higher. As always, KNOW YOUR TIMEFRAME! If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next LIVE webinar which will be this Monday, October 7th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
10/4/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large buyer of 5500 Nov 8th $480 calls at $16.75, over $9M
10/4/24 Energy ETF (XLE) with 44,000 Dec $87 puts selling to open for $1.86 as 55k of the Dec $82 short puts adjust
10/4/24 China Internet ETF (CWEB) buyers for 1000 Nov $56 calls at $9.80 offers
10/4/24 China Internet ETF (CWEB) also buyers of 5000 Nov $69 calls at $6 to $6.20
10/4/24 China A Shares (ASHR) buyers of 2000 Nov 8th $33.50 calls at $2.17 to $2.21
10/4/24 China ETF (FXI) 6000 Nov $35 puts sell to open at $1.85, continue to see a lot of bullish put sales into this rally for China
10/4/24 Tesla (TSLA) buyers of over 30,000 next weeks $250 calls at $9.45 up to $10.40, Robotaxi event 10/10
10/4/24 Ross Stores (ROST) 1075 Nov $140 puts sell to open 1.75 to 1.70
10/4/24 Home Depot (HD) 1340 Dec $450 calls bought $4.30 offer
10/4/24 PDD Holdings (PDD) buyer 4000 Oct $157.50 calls $5.30 to $5.80
10/4/24 PDD Holdings (PDD) buyers Nov $165 calls 10,000X
10/4/24 PDD Holdings (PDD) 10,000 Nov 22nd (W) $150 puts sell to open $10
10/4/24 PDD Holdings (PDD) 600 Jan 2026 $125 puts sell to open 16.30
10/4/24 DoorDash (DASH) 200 Feb $130 ITM calls buy at $24, still has the massive Nov $100 calls in OI
10/4/24 Target (TGT) buyers of 1500 Nov 22nd $155 calls at $6.55, captures earnings 11/20
10/4/24 AppLovin (APP) seeing buyers of 725 May $200 calls at $8.35 as the Jan $140 calls adjust
10/4/24 Sweetgreen (SG) 700 July $25 puts sell to open $3.40
10/4/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) late day buyer of 6000 Dec $140 calls at $0.83
10/4/24 Carvana (CVNA) buyer of 2000 Jan $200 calls at $18.17 as the $160 calls adjust
10/4/24 First Solar (FSLR) opening sale of 1000 March $175 puts at $8.42 as some Jan puts adjust
10/4/24 Exxon (XOM) opening sale of 900 Dec 2025 $135 calls at $8.15
10/4/24 EQT (EQT) buyer 600 Jan 2027 $30 calls ITM $12.35 after big bull risk reversals late yesterday
10/4/24 UP Fintech Holding (TIGR) more bull flow with 9000 April $12 calls being bought $2.75 to $2.90
10/4/24 UP Fintech Holding (TIGR) also buyers of 3300 Jan $13 calls at $3.60 offers late day
10/4/24 Coinbase (COIN) buyer of 600 June $130 deep ITM calls at $59.50
10/4/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) with 1000 Oct 25th $180/$150 bull risk reversals open at $6.90 debit
10/4/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) spread sells 1000 Dec $90 puts to buy $120/$140 call spreads
10/4/24 Merck (MRK) opening sale of 700 Jan 2027 $110 puts at $12.95
10/4/24 Pfizer (PFE) with 3000 Feb $29 puts sell to open at $2.09
10/4/24 Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) unusual buyer of 5000 Nov $5/$10 call spreads at $1.60
10/4/24 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) 720 April $300 calls sold to open 7.75
10/4/24 Modine Manufacturing (MOD) 200 Feb $150 calls bought $14.70
10/4/24 Rocket Labs (RKLB) 1750 Nov $8 calls bought up to 2.35
10/4/24 Salesforce (CRM) 1725 Oct $285 calls bought for $900K as $280 strike adjusts higher
10/4/24 Meta (META) massive opening sale 6000 Nov 22nd (W) $570 puts for $24
10/4/24 Meta (META) buyer of 1000 Nov 8th $680 calls at $6.20
10/4/24 Meta (META) also 1150 Nov 1st $610 calls with late day buyers at $22.55 to $23
10/4/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 4050 Nov 8th (W) $150 puts sell to open 1.53
10/4/24 Dell (DELL) with 1000 Jan 2026 $250 calls bought $3.20 offers
10/4/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) 1500 Nov 8th (W) $240 puts sell to open 2.17
10/4/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 2370 Nov 8th (W) $440 calls bought near $6.14 as Oct calls adjust
10/4/24 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 1000 August 2025 $250 calls $5.40
10/4/24 Alibaba (BABA) buyer 5000 Dec $130 calls $6.18
10/4/24 Alibaba (BABA) with 3500 Nov $97.50 puts sell to open $1.62
10/4/24 Apple (AAPL) 3400 Nov. 8th (W) $235 calls sell to open $3.60
10/4/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) 2000 Nov 8th (W) 180/190 call spreads bought
10/4/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) also with 2000 Nov 1st $ $170 ITM puts sell to open at $7.53 to $7.65
10/4/24 Vistra (VST) buyers of 1000 Oct 25th $130 calls at $11 to $11.70
10/4/24 Vistra (VST) 600 Jan 2026 $100 puts sell to open for 13.50
10/4/24 NextEra Energy (NEE) 3000 March $77.50 puts sell to open $3.70
10/4/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 775 Nov 22nd (W) $124 calls $10.95 offer
10/4/24 Nvidia (NVDA) next weeks $127 calls sell to open 43,000x at $1.88 as well as the $131 calls selling at $0.68, adjusting $120 and $124 short calls
10/3/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyers of 2000 June 30th (Q) $240 calls at $8.30 to $8.35
10/3/24 Energy ETF (XLE) 3500 November $97 calls bought
10/3/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) buyer 2215 November $146 calls $2.49
10/3/24 Oil Services ETF (OIH) with 2000 Nov $315/$270 bull risk reversals opening at $2.90 debit
10/3/24 Gold ETF (GLD) 3000 January $231 puts sell to open $2.35
10/3/24 China Internet ETF (CWEB) buyers 2000 Oct. $57 calls $4.10 offers
10/3/24 China Bull 3x ETF (YINN) size buyer 1500 Oct. 25th (W) $50 calls $5.80 to $6
10/3/24 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) with 2000 Jan 2026 $200 ITM puts sell to open at $17.60
10/3/24 Hims and Hers (HIMS) buyer 5000 Feb $20 calls $2.20
10/3/24 Target (TGT) with 600 March $140 calls bought for $17.40
10/3/24 Tesla (TSLA) 1500 March $220 puts sell $23.78
10/3/24 PDD Holdings (PDD) 10K Oct 25th (W) $148 puts sell to open for $7
10/3/24 Toast (TOST) more bull flow today with 1090 March $32 calls bought $2.29
10/3/24 Uber (UBER) buyers of over 5700 Oct 11th $77 calls at $0.73 as some $80 calls adjust
10/3/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) sales to open 500 Feb $170 calls 13.70
10/3/24 Chevron (CVX) 10K December $165 calls sold to open 2.03
10/3/24 Coinbase (COIN) roll of Nov $185 calls to Dec $165 calls 18,100X
10/3/24 JP Morgan (JPM) buyer 500 April $175 calls for $1.9M rolls Oct $170
10/3/24 Blackstone (BX) 1500 Nov $140 puts sell to open $3
10/3/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) 1500 Dec $115 calls are sold to open for $9
10/3/24 Thermo Fisher (TMO) 450 November $550 puts sell to open $5.39
10/3/24 Amgen (AMGN) buyer 450 December $315 ITM calls for $23.20
10/3/24 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) opening sales of 2000 Jan $50 calls at $3.70
10/3/24 Verona Pharma (VRNA) 2000 March $45 calls sell to open for 1.45
10/3/24 Microsoft (MSFT) opening seller of 700 June $430 ITM puts for $36.10
10/3/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 775 August 2025 $515 calls sold to open $10.85
10/3/24 Palantir (PLTR) block 4000 March $45 calls bought $3.40 to open
10/3/24 Palantir (PLTR) with 2000 April $29 deep ITM calls buying at $12.10 as the Oct $27 calls adjust
10/3/24 Autodesk (ADSK) 650 Nov $260/$250 bull put spreads opening for $2.30 credit
10/3/24 Alibaba (BABA) 2000 Jan 2026 $150 calls bought $11 and seeing buyers of 3000 April $160 calls
10/3/24 Dell (DELL) buyer 1000 March $145 calls $5.90 offer
10/3/24 Teradyne (TER) 5075 Nov $100 puts sell to open 1.15 to 1.10
10/3/24 Broadcom (AVGO) aggressive buyer of 2500 Jan $182 calls for $12.15 offer, over $3M
10/3/24 Vistra (VST) 2000 Oct 25th (W) $150 calls bought $2.50 to $2.85
10/3/24 NRG Energy (NRG) buyer 2000 May $135 calls $1.95 to $2
10/3/24 NRG Energy (NRG) also buyers of 1500 Jan 2026 $135 calls at $5.25
10/3/24 Constellation Energy (CEG) buyers of 1400 Jan $400 calls at $4.80 to $5.10
Rocket Labs (RKLB) has seen strong recent momentum and also plenty of bullish options positioning with 3900 December 2026 $12 calls bought, 1175 June 2025 $20 calls bought, 5000 April $17 calls bought and 3500 November $17 calls bought. RKLB also has a lot of October $8 and $9 calls bought sitting in open interest with expiration in two weeks. RKLB is setting up another nice bull flag with a rising 8-MA supportive lately, shares up 67% YTD, and this leg measuring to $12-$13 upside on a break over $9.50. RKLB delivers reliable launch services, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it faster, easier and more affordable to access space. Rocket Lab’s frequent launch cadence has been enabled through innovative manufacturing techniques for Electron, including 3D printing and automation. RKLB is now developing the Neutron launch vehicle. As of the end of 2023, RKLB launched and deployed 172 spacecraft for customers which includes government customers, such as the DoD, NASA and other U.S. government agencies. RKLB has a market cap of $4.6B and trades 9.3X EV/Sales with revenues seen rising 75% in FY24, 40% in FY25 and 45% in FY26 while EBITDA profitability inflection seen in FY26. RKLB will launch its new Neutron rocket in 2H25 after a 6-month delay. Space Systems growth has been solid from anchor programs like Globalstar and SDA Tranche 2 and RKLB continues to burn down lower-margin SolAero backlog. Electron (~47 launches / ~183 satellites launched) rocket is limited at ~300kg lift capacity to LEO. Neutron at ~13,000kg lift to LEO is the next big thing – and a key opportunity for RKLB to compete more directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and other medium-class launchers. RKLB efforts to increase rocket reusability is seen as a potential game-changer. Analysts have an average target of $8 and short interest remains around 12% of the float. KeyBanc raised its target to $11 last week citing increased confidence in the company’s ability to scale its business and become an industry leader in both launch services and satellite manufacturing and design.