Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 9:55 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, DELL, MSFT, WING, LLY, NVO, CRWD, ISRG, MU
4) 16:50 Stock Review – Software and Semiconductors: IGV (ETF), APP, SNPS, SMH (ETF), PI, TSM, AVGO, KLAC, ARM
5) 21:15 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), CRNX, GPCR, AVTE, NTRA, TMDX, PRCT, RXST, MEDP
6) 25:20 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: AVAV, LDOS, HWM, WWD, FTAI
7) 26:05 Stock Review – Restaurants: CMG, CAVA, SG, TXRH, DPZ
8) 27:00 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: VRT, META, NFLX, VST, CEG, NRG, ASPN, CAMT, CLS, NTAP, PSTG
9) 32:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
We’re in a power trend, let’s keep things simple. Remember the four rules: 1) Use the 21-day EMA as your guide. 2) Expose yourself to strong stocks and/or ETFs. 3) Get strong entry points. 4) Manage your positions as best as possible based on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. In this video, I take a few minutes to discuss seasonality. I’ve noticed that the end of quarters tend to see some volatility. Specifically, the end of March, June, and September. That doesn’t mean that is has to happen. I simply like to remind members of this potential volatility ahead of time. Also, some of the seasonal statistics conflict with each other, and I present some of them regarding Presidential Election years.
The bottom line is this: 1) Seasonality is secondary to the price action of stocks and the overall market. For example, last year it worked almost perfectly. This year, it hasn’t been as consistent. 2) The 21-day EMA overrides any shorter-term seasonality. For example, if we are extended and heading into a seasonally strong week, being extended is more important in my view. 3) Even if we see some volatility towards the end of June, I’m not expecting any significant downside. If a potential 2-3% pullback scares you, then reduce your exposure. If it doesn’t scare you, then congrats on being mentally tough, trading with confidence, and understanding that pullbacks are part of normal price action. From here, I’m going to continue to keep things simple. In my videos, I am sometimes quick to buy a position or sell it if I don’t like the near-term price action. If some of these moves are difficult to keep up with or if they don’t fit your style, then please use lighter positions and give them more room. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
6/7/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) aggressive buy 1000 June 2025 $524.78 calls for $18.80
6/7/24 Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) with over 2500 May 2025 $90 puts sell to open at $3.90 bids
6/7/24 Silver ETF (SLV) another opening put sale sees 5000 Sept $26.50 puts sell for $1.30
6/7/24 Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) size buys of 13,000 Sept $44 calls $3.90 to $4
6/7/24 Gold ETF (GLD) large buyer of 7400 August $215 calls at $5.70 to $5.95, over $4.4M
6/7/24 Costco (COST) buyers of 525 Sept $1000 calls at $3.55
6/7/24 Costco (COST) also with 450 Sept $860 calls bought for $1.5M
6/7/24 Nike (NKE) another 8650 Sept $100 calls bought $4.65 to $4.85
6/7/24 Starbucks (SBUX) another 3200 June 2026 $80 calls bought $15.60
6/7/24 Starbucks (SBUX) also 3000 Jan $90 calls bought $4.50
6/7/24 Uber (UBER) buyer 300 March 62.50 calls $13.65 offer
6/7/24 DoorDash (DASH) with 2600 June 28th $117 calls bought at $2.82 and sells the July $105 puts at $1.57
6/7/24 Halliburton (HAL) with 13,000 August $31 puts sell to open $0.44, adjusting June
6/7/24 Schlumberger (SLB) sees an opening seller of 600 Sept 2026 $40 puts at $4.70
6/7/24 Coinbase (COIN) buyer 3000 June 28th (W) $270 calls $14.65 to $14.80
6/7/24 PayPal (PYPL) June 2026 calls back at it with 2800 of the $67.50 bought for nearly $5M
6/7/24 Citigroup (C) buyers 2800 August $62.50 calls $2.88 offer as some June calls roll
6/7/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) seeing 1227 July $1550 calls buy at $273.90, adjusts the $1540 calls from last month
6/7/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) buyer of another 1000 Sept $140 calls $11.15 to $11.20
6/7/24 Vertiv (VRT) July $90 calls with 2600 sold to open at $6.52, adjusting the $100 short calls lower
6/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) sees a buyer of over 3000 July $1490 calls at $10.50
6/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also seeing separate trades buying 3k of the July $1390 calls at $21.36 to $21.55
6/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) with a large buyer of 3000 Sept $1300/$1400 call spreads at $30.40
6/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) with an opening sale of 550 November $1250 puts at $161.75
6/7/24 Dell (DELL) buyer 2000 January $180 calls for $8
6/7/24 Dell (DELL) 1000 next week 129 puts sell to open 1.70
6/7/24 Salesforce (CRM) 600 June 2025 $280 calls sell to open for 21.50
6/7/24 Google (GOOG) buyer 2000 January $190 calls $12.29
6/7/24 Amazon (AMZN) with an opening seller of 1500 Dec 2026 $140/$135 bull put spreads at $1.24
6/7/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) with 800 June 2026 $140 calls buying at $54.75 offer, over $4M
6/7/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) sees 850 July $350 puts sell to open at $19.20 to $18.50
6/7/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) sees next weeks $370 calls buying at $3.40 with some spreading vs $385 calls at $1.25
6/7/24 Microsoft (MSFT) with 1000 Dec 2026 $450 puts sell to open at $61.51 as the Jan 2026 $350 short puts adjust up
6/7/24 NRG Energy (NRG) buyer of 3300 Sept $70 puts at $3.50 offer
6/6/24 Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) seeing 3700 August $94 puts sell to open 2.63
6/6/24 2X Bitcoin ETF (BITX) unusual trade sold 1000 June $50 puts to open $5
6/6/24 Silver ETF (SLV) large spread sold 15,000 Dec 31 (Q) $26 puts to buy the $32/$38 call spreads
6/6/24 RH (RH) with 450 August $260/$250 bull put spreads sell at $3.50 with earnings next week
6/6/24 Starbucks (SBUX) with another 2000 January $87.50 calls bought $4.85 offers
6/6/24 Wix.com (WIX) 400 July $190 calls bought $4.50 offer
6/6/24 Home Depot (HD) with 600 June 2025 $410 calls bought $5.95 to $7.20
6/6/24 AppLovin (APP) buyer 625 November $95 calls $9.30
6/6/24 Citigroup (C) buyer 3000 January $80/$95 call spreads
6/6/24 Citigroup (C) 1750 August $62.5 calls bought $2.40 to $2.43
6/6/24 Citigroup (C) 3000 Dec $57.5 puts sell to open 2.42
6/6/24 Goldman Sachs (GS) large bulls buying 250 June 2025 $500 calls at $32.75
6/6/24 Goldman Sachs (GS)also an opening seller of 200 December $500 ITM puts at $49.35
6/6/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 800 June 28th (W) $1700 calls opening for $14M
6/6/24 Coinbase (COIN) sees the large July $230 calls rolling up to buy 25,685 July $260 calls at $24.02
6/6/24 Visa (V) trade opening 2800 August $290/$255 bull risk reversals around $2.20 debits
6/6/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) opening sale 1165 July 26th (W) $380 puts for $5.20 to $5.10
6/6/24 Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) spreads selling July $125 puts and buying Sept $140 calls 900X
6/6/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) opening seller 500 July 26th $138 puts at $3.00 bids
6/6/24 Micron (MU) massive buyers of 7500 Oct $155 calls at $8.20 to $8.25, reporting on 6/26
6/6/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) with 1100 December $210 calls buying, $2.3M trade
6/6/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 1280 January $195 calls $15.50+ looking to add to OI
6/6/24 Fortinet (FTNT) opening sale of 900 June 2025 $65 calls at $8.05 to $8
6/6/24 Dell (DELL) another opening put sale with 700 June 2025 $145 ITM puts sell to open at $30.10 bids
6/6/24 Dell (DELL) 1200 June 2025 $95 puts sell to open $7
6/6/24 Meta (META) buyer 6000 Jan 2026 $800 calls $25.35 adjusts 3000 of the $600 calls
6/6/24 Vistra (VST) sees 2000 July $77.50 puts sell to open $3.48 as June $85 short puts adjust
6/6/24 NRG Energy (NRG) seeing large opening sales of 1600 July $75 calls at $6.30 to $6.10
6/6/24 Nvidia (NVDA) $73M position opens 4220 Dec 2026 $2280 calls as the $1640 calls bought on 2/28 and 2/29 adjust and was the max strike when bought that day paying near $71 and closing today at $283
6/5/24 Aerovate Therapeutics (AVTE) 590 July $20 calls bought for $7.50, small Biotech with key IMPAHCT data due in Q2, and Wells Fargo sees 60 to 100% upside as a top pick with a $35 target. AVTE short interest is rather low at 5.5% of the float for a $490M biotech and trades 5X cash funded through 2026. AVTE is developing inhaled imatinib for pulmonary arterial hypertension with “major de-risking” Phase IIB data in June, and Jefferies has a $65 target on shares