IBD Podcast Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zW3Ope4pOtQ
Zweig Breadth Thrust Statistics: https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1720577596264710437
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:30 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ADBE, NOW, LLY, NVO, VRTX, UBER, DELL
4) 11:15 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), SNPS, CDNS, PANW, CRWD, QLYS, ZS, ORCL, CRM, AYX
5) 16:10 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMH (ETF), AVGO, ANET, VRT, META, LULU, WING, CLS, FN, CELH, RRC, PDD, CAMT, AVAV
6) 23:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
As I mentioned in recent videos, last week was an important week for the markets. The market interpreted that the Fed is done with their current rate-hiking cycle. That doesn’t mean the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, but it does mean stability for the markets. In other words, the market doesn’t need to be concerned about significantly higher rates anytime soon. Also, keep in mind the market is a discounting mechanism and tends to trade on what will happen 6-9 months from now. Fed Funds futures are pricing in 100 basis points of rate cuts over the next year, so it’s possible the market is starting to anticipate a more equity friendly environment.
The big institutions seemed to like this news and the technicals improved very quickly. We saw two follow through days, a Zweig Breadth Thrust, we regained the 50-day moving averages (on the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500), and we haven’t seen any distribution days since the FTD. When you combine these strong technicals with the strong seasonality, the bearish market sentiment, and the improving price action in growth stocks, this leads me to believe we will see continued strength into year-end. This will likely be a “buy the dip” market into the end of the year. That doesn’t mean be reckless and lose all discipline. Continue to use the 21-day as your guide for entry points, and remember to stick to a loss cutting discipline when positions break those key moving averages. If you have trouble with decisions, please keep in mind that you can use partial positions to help build your decision-making muscle. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week!
Unusual Option Activity:
11/8/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 3000 January $171 puts sold to open $5.30
11/8/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also buyers active in February $179 calls 6500X at $3.49 to $3.55
11/8/23 Energy ETF (XLE) with 3000 March $78 puts sell to open at $2.51
11/8/23 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 4000 Dec. 8th (W) $240 calls $5 to $5.50
11/8/23 Starbucks (SBUX) buyer 1400 February $90 ITM calls $16.20 offer
11/8/23 Conoco (COP) with 8500 January $125/$100 bull risk reversals opening for $0.80
11/8/23 Occidental (OXY) with 2000 March $60 puts sold to open 3.20
11/8/23 Novo Nordisk (NVO) large buys for 1200 Dec $87.50 deep ITM calls at $14
11/8/23 Vertiv (VRT) 5000 March $40/$50 call spreads bought for $3.47 as Jan call spreads adjust
11/8/23 Apple (AAPL) massive opening seller 15,000 Dec. 22nd (W) $185 ITM puts
11/8/23 Meta (META) Dec 1 (W) $330 calls up over 4050X bought
11/8/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 1000 February 115/135 call spreads as some Nov. 110 adjust
11/8/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 1000 Dec 1 (W) $465/$515 call spreads captures earnings
11/8/23 Snowflake (SNOW) 300 January 2025 $1500 puts sold to open 25.15
11/7/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large trade bought 10,000 Dec $386 calls $3.66 and sold 5000 of the $379 puts to open $10.09
11/7/23 Tesla (TSLA) size lots buying Dec 1 (W) $240 calls at $3.80 for 3000X
11/7/23 Tesla (TSLA) also Dec 1 (W) $215 large opening put seller 3000X at $7.05
11/7/23 Uber (UBER) opening sale 3000 April $45 puts for $3.30
11/7/23 Uber (UBER) also seeing 3000 Dec. 8th (W) $51 calls bought
11/7/23 Uber (UBER) into the close with 6500 January 2025 $57.50 calls bought for $4.7M
11/7/23 Home Depot (HD) with 1000 June $240 puts sold to open for 5.10
11/7/23 Netflix (NFLX) with 425 September $570 calls bought $24.70 for $1M
11/7/23 Occidental (OXY) 1200 February $52.5 puts sell to open 0.96
11/7/23 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) seeing 1400 April $160 calls sell to open at $7 to 6.70 bids
11/7/23 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) with 200 January 2025 $360 puts sold to open $25 to $28 zone
11/7/23 Amazon (AMZN) large buyer for 11,000 Feb $155 calls at $5.12 and also buys 11k of the $175 calls at $1.07
11/7/23 Snowflake (SNOW) massive trade in Jan 2026 sells 2500 of the $120 puts $19.20 and buys 2500 of the $180/$250 call spreads for $19.90
11/7/23 Snowflake (SNOW) also a block of 1500 January 2025 $230 calls buys for $16.70
11/7/23 Palo Alto (PANW) with 750 Jan $243.33 puts sell to open $15.50
11/7/23 Palantir (PLTR) opening seller of 2200 Feb $20 puts at $2.70
11/7/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 1000 Dec. 1 (W) $510 calls 8.30 to 8.50
11/7/23 Salesforce (CRM) opening sale 530 Jan. 2026 $200 puts 25.50
11/7/23 Salesforce (CRM) also seeing 500 May 240 calls sold to open today 10.05 to 9.80
11/7/23 Salesforce (CRM) 200 Sept 210 puts sold to open $20
11/7/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) sweep buyers 1500 Dec 8th (W) $116 calls $4.90 offer, captures that 12-6 AI day
11/7/23 Baidu (BIDU) opening sale 400 January 2025 $90 puts for 8.80
11/7/23 Meta (META) block of 1000 April 330 calls sold to open today for 29.15
11/6/23 Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) March $165/$162 bull risk reversals opening 1500X
11/6/23 Biotech ETF (XBI) opening seller 1250 Jan. 2025 $74 puts for 9.65
11/6/23 Celsius Holdings (CELH) opening seller 500 April 155 puts for 16.30
11/6/23 DraftKings (DKNG) buyer 2350 January $36 calls $2.05
11/6/23 DraftKings (DKNG) also buyers 1200 May 45 calls up to 2.20
11/6/23 Uber (UBER) ahead of earnings with 7500 weekly $47.50 puts sold to open $1.55
11/6/23 Uber (UBER) also 5000 Dec 8th (W) $40 puts sold to open $0.31
11/6/23 Chevron (CVX) buyers of 3000 Jan $155 calls $3.35 and selling 3000 Jan $130 puts at $1.03 in risk reversals
11/6/23 Eli Lilly (LLY) 200 Feb. 700 calls sold to open $8
11/6/23 Snowflake (SNOW) buyer of 200 Dec 1st $130 deep ITM calls for $18.85 to $20.49, captures earnings 11/29
11/6/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers 2000 Nov. 24th (W) $505 calls $7.85 to $8.70, captures earnings 11-21
11/6/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 2800 Dec 1st $140 calls at $4.20 to $4.35
11/6/23 Palo Alto (PANW) opening sales of 650 March $250 calls at $20.85
11/6/23 Microsoft (MSFT) close of 2000 Jan $345 calls and buys 2000 Feb $375 calls against the sale of 3000 Feb $420 calls