Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:05 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ADBE, LLY, NOW, UBER, META, NVO
4) 10:50 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, SNPS, QLYS, PANW, CRWD, AYX, ESTC, VERX, INTU, MANH, DUOL
5) 13:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMH (ETF), ONTO, XLE (ETF), TDW, CAMT, CLS, FN, DELL, ANET, SMCI, TSLA, MOD, CELH, TNET, AMGN
6) 20:40 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
After the October 6th follow through day, I discussed the checklist of what bulls needed to see for a potential sustained, new uptrend. Unfortunately, none of the criteria showed up. We didn’t want to see any distribution, and we’ve seen three distribution days so far on the Nasdaq Composite (Oct 12, 18, and 19). We wanted to see additional accumulation and that hasn’t happened. In addition, the major indexes were met with resistance at their 50-day moving averages. That led me to send a Market Note to Members Friday morning reminding you to stay defensive. I reduced my exposure this past week from approximately 75% invested down to 30%. It felt like there were many growth stocks that wanted to move higher but the weight of the market kept them down this past week.

As I mentioned, if you have trouble making decisions, you can always trade partial positions. The most important thing right now is to stay defensive until we see signs of the institutional selling slow down. We have to be patient until we get some clarity on interest rates and/or the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. I will always work for you and curate a list of stocks holding up the best, but right now, I’m not interested in increasing my exposure until the selling slows down. If I do anything, it will be with lighter than normal position sizes until market conditions improve. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Monday, October 23rd at 7PM EST. Thank you and good luck this week!

Unusual Option Activity:
10/20/23 Biotech ETF (IBB) opening sale 6500 January $105 puts $1.30
10/20/23 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 1600 Nov 2024 $115 puts sell to open at $6.63
10/20/23 Silver ETF (SLV) buyers late in day of 7000 March 28th (Q) $20 calls at $2.57
10/20/23 Tesla (TSLA) opening sale 1600 May $170 puts $12.60
10/20/23 Lowes (LOW) buyers of 638 June $190 puts at $15.96, adjusting Jan
10/20/23 Home Depot (HD) seeing 475 May $280 puts bought at $17.55, adjusts Jan puts
10/20/23 Schlumberger (SLB) with 2400 May $67.5 calls bought $3.05 to $3.20
10/20/23 Blackstone (BX) opening sale 1000 Jan 2026 $80 puts for 11.50, saw similar Jan 2026 flows late yesterday
10/20/23 Visa (V) seeing 500 June $245 calls sold to open $16.05
10/20/23 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with 1100 Dec 1 (W) $240 puts sold to open 3.20
10/20/23 DaVita (DVA) opening sale 500 April $100 calls 3.79
10/20/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1100 Nov 10th $103 puts sell to open for $5.10
10/20/23 Nvidia (NVDA) block of 2000 Jan. 2025 $375 puts sells to open $53.20
10/20/23 Applovin (APP) opening seller of 2100 Nov $40 calls at 2.65
10/20/23 Micron (MU) with 3200 Dec $77.50 calls buy at $0.82
10/19/23 Homebuilders ETF (ITB) large trade buys 3475 January $73 puts for $3.91, adjusting the $78 puts
10/19/23 MidCap ETF (MDY) buyers 1500 March $490 calls $7.10 to $7.80
10/19/23 Phillip Morris (PM) buyer 1500 January 97.50 calls 1.25
10/19/23 Nike (NKE) buyers of 4000 December 100/90 put spreads
10/19/23 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 1000 May $225 puts sold to open $29.70 to $32.90 range, all on bids
10/19/23 Tesla (TSLA) also 1500 January 2026 $175 puts sold to open 31.55 in a single block
10/19/23 Expedia (EXPE) buyer 700 March $120 calls for $3.50
10/19/23 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with 1000 Nov. 24th (W) $67 calls bought $2.40 to $2.66
10/19/23 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) opening sale 500 June $170 calls $10.15
10/19/23 Baxter (BAX) buyer 3000 Dec 1 (W) $34 calls $0.81
10/19/23 Microsoft (MSFT) large opening sale 1000 June $345 puts $31.05
10/19/23 Service Now (NOW) buyer 250 Dec 1 (W) $530 puts $15.60 to $15.80, earnings 10-25
10/19/23 Meta (META) buyer 2000 November $365 calls for $3.99
10/19/23 Google (GOOG) large block of 8000 Sept 2024 $180 calls sell to open at $5.55 bids
10/19/23 Baidu (BIDU) opening sale 1850 January $105 puts for $6.60
10/19/23 Super Micro (SMCI) buyer 400 January $240 puts $24.30+
10/18/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyers of 3000 Nov 3rd (W) $366 puts this morning for $2M
10/18/23 TJX (TJX) opening sale 5700 Nov. 10th (W) 92 calls for 1.20
10/18/23 Carnival (CCL) large buyer of 27,000 Nov $13 calls for $0.38, adjusting the $14 calls
10/18/23 Netflix (NFLX) opening sale of 350 Sept 2024 $350 puts at $46.15, confident longer term bull
10/18/23 Exxon (XOM) some big blocks buying 1500 Nov 10th $111 calls at $4.10 to $4.40
10/18/23 Conoco (COP) spread sold 3000 Nov $115 puts to buy 6050 of the $130/$140 call spreads adjusting Oct call spreads
10/18/23 J&J (JNJ) with 1500 March $165 calls bought to open $3.30
10/18/23 Medtronic (MDT) buyer 1150 May $75 calls to open $5.10
10/18/23 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 5000 Oct. 27th (W) $320/$300 put spreads
10/18/23 Allegro Microsystems (ALGM) with 7500 Dec $25 puts sell to open at $0.50
10/18/23 Texas Instruments (TXN) opening sale 1000 December $145 puts for $3.75
10/18/23 Global Foundries (GFS) with 900 January 2025 $45 puts sold to open $4.30
10/18/23 Amazon (AMZN) with 2050 June 2025 $135/$180 call spreads bought for $15.10, long term bull
10/18/23 Nvidia (NVDA) with 1070 February $305 puts sold to open $5.80
10/18/23 Arista Networks (ANET) bullish action buying 220 Jan 2026 $240 calls at $39.80
10/18/23 Arista Networks (ANET) also buying 660 of the $260 calls for $35.50
10/18/23 Apple (AAPL) block 5300 Sep. 2024 $145 puts sold to open for $5.15