The 10 Worst S&P 500 Weeks of the Year: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1698774223823528164

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 4:15 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, CELH, LLY, NOW, UBER
4) 6:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CRM, CDNS, SNPS, WDAY, APP, QLYS, PANW, INTU
5) 8:55 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AMAT, AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, ACLS, AEHR
6) 10:30 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), XOP (ETF), OIH (ETF), WFRD, MPC, TDW, BKR, HAL, SLB, DINO
7) 11:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: CLS, EXTR, VRT, NVO, TSLA, LULU, BBIO, QTRX, AXON, META, NFLX, BKNG
8) 15:35 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
After the follow through day (FTD) last Tuesday, August 29th, I mentioned that we don’t want to see any heavy distribution and to expect some backing and filling along the way. Regarding the first point, the pullback this week has occurred on light volume so far, and seems to be a normal pullback to the 21-day moving average. By backing and filling, I am referring to using the 21-day as your guide. In other words, after the FTD surge, it is normal for the market to digest those gains back to key support levels. I haven’t done much trading this week, as I am happy with my strong entry points during the last two weeks of August, and I’m doing my best to remain patient as long as my positions continue to act well.

From here, my game plan is simple. If we see strength into next week, I plan to lighten up. I am currently 80-85% invested, and I plan to reduce my exposure on any strength during next week’s OpEx. The reason why is that the week after September OpEx is statistically one of the worst weeks of the year (see link above). In addition, it coincides with the “sell Rosh Hashanah buy Yum Kippur” seasonality. Don’t laugh, those holiday statistics are very strong. Also, the end of the quarter tends to see rebalancing and higher volatility, so I would like to be more defensive during this potentially seasonally weak period. Again, this type of active management isn’t for everyone. I present this data in order to prepare members for what could happen. If you are a shorter-term trader and like to be tactical, then reducing exposure next week could be an option for you. If you are longer-term and hopefully have strong entry points, then you will have to deal with some likely volatility. I will take this day-by-day, but overall, I’m expecting any volatility during September and October to eventually result in a decent uptrend into year-end. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity:
9/6/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with large opening sales of 9100 December $393 puts for $2.52
9/6/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 6000 Sept 22nd $190 calls at $1.08, spread vs some sales of the $194 calls
9/6/23 Airlines ETF (JETS) buyer 16,000 Dec. $18/$14 put spreads $0.53 with rising fuel costs a concern now
9/6/23 Tesla (TSLA) large buys of 2900 November $280 puts up to $40 for $11.5M
9/6/23 Campbell Soup (CPB) opening sale 800 January 2025 $40 puts for $3.40
9/6/23 Papa John’s (PZZA) large opening seller of 3500 Oct $70 puts for $1.00 down to $0.97
9/6/23 Exxon (XOM) block of 15,000 Nov $105 puts sells to open 1.59
9/6/23 Goldman Sachs (GS) with 4000 Nov $350 calls selling to open 4.49
9/6/23 Goldman Sachs (GS) seeing large buys midday for 400 Dec $300 ITM calls for $31.15 to $31.45
9/6/23 Wells Fargo (WFC) with 3000 June 2025 $40 puts sold to open at $4.86
9/6/23 Charles Schwab (SCHW) seeing 8500 Sep. $58 puts sell to open this afternoon down to 0.88
9/6/23 Zillow (Z) opening sale 1250 Dec 2025 $80 calls 6.90
9/6/23 Eli Lilly (LLY) with buyers of 1400 October $540 puts this morning for $1.3M
9/6/23 Eli Lilly (LLY) also buyers of 1500 Oct $600 calls for $3.10 to $3.50
9/6/23 BridgeBio (BBIO) seeing a large buyer for 1000 February $20 deep ITM calls for $12 to $12.10
9/6/23 Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) buyer 600 Nov 170/200 call spreads for $4.90 after bull spreads opened yesterday
9/6/23 Apple (AAPL) buyer of 1200 April $170 puts for $6.05
9/6/23 Apple (AAPL) also some buyers of 3000 Oct 6th $180 puts at $1.50 to $2.04
9/6/23 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing sellers 6500 December $490 calls for over $25M
9/6/23 Splunk (SPLK) with 3500 Sep. 122 puts selling to open
9/6/23 Snowflake (SNOW) buyers of 1200 Nov $145 puts for $6.30
9/6/23 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 1000 February $50 puts 2.97 offer
9/6/23 Micron (MU) large buyers for over 2400 December $70 puts at $4.65 to $4.90
9/6/23 Adobe (ADBE) opening seller 300 June $500 puts for $35
9/5/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trade opens 7500 Dec 2024 $510/$380 bull risk reversals for $4.10
9/5/23 Retail ETF (XRT) with 6270 Jan $68 puts bought for $6.30, adjusts the $75 puts
9/5/23 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) opening seller 3000 June $38 puts $1.95
9/5/23 Tesla (TSLA) with 1000 March $260 puts sold $39.25 also seeing large opening sales 2450 Nov $260 puts near $26.10
9/5/23 Lululemon (LULU) buyer 450 March $370 puts $17.50 to $17.80
9/5/23 Pinduoduo (PDD) with 1500 Sep. 29th (W) 99 puts sell to open 3.10 bid
9/5/23 Uber (UBER) buyer 1000 December $35 calls $12.80 to $12.82
9/5/23 Roku (ROKU) opening seller 1000 Jan. 2025 $60 puts for 8.90
9/5/23 Halliburton (HAL) with 2500 October $43 calls bought up to $1.03
9/5/23 Marathon Petro (MPC) buyer 500 April $160 calls $9.35 offer
9/5/23 Goldman Sachs (GS) buyer of 400 November $300 calls for $31.90
9/5/23 Visa (V) opening sale 1000 October $245 puts for 4.60
9/5/23 CVS Health (CVS) opening seller 4000 Oct. 62.50 puts for 0.83
9/5/23 Bristol Myers (BMY) with 10,000 Nov $57.50 puts sold to open at $0.80, adjusts Sept $60 short puts
9/5/23 J&J (JNJ) large opening sale for 10,000 Nov $150 puts at $1.25 bids
9/5/23 J&J (JNJ) also with 25,000 Nov $175 calls sell to open at $0.88 bids
9/5/23 ACM Research (ACMR) spreads selling 1000 Jan 18.33 puts to buy the 20/26.67 call spreads
9/5/23 Alibaba (BABA) with 1400 April $80 puts sold to open at $4.48
9/5/23 Baidu (BIDU) buyer of 500 Oct 6th $140 calls at $8.15
9/5/23 Broadcom (AVGO) with buyers of 1000 Sept 22nd $850 ITM calls for $35 to $36.50
9/5/23 Palantir (PLTR) opening seller 5000 Sep. 29th (W) $15.50 calls 0.71
9/5/23 Meta (META) with 1100 November $305 calls bought $20.75 offers