Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 9:25 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, WING, RVNC
4) 14:20 Stock Review – Semiconductors and Software: SMH (ETF), AMD, ASML, IGV (ETF), CRM, FTNT, PANW
5) 17:25 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), VKTX, TERN, ETNB, RCUS, KRYS, AXSM, PTCT, IMCR, MDGL, AUPH, ITCI, VRNA, TGTX, CBAY, APLS, ISEE, INZY
6) 24:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SGML, ANET, SMCI, SWAV, PODD, DXCM, LNTH, TMDX, INSP, DECK, ONON, FOUR, TXRH, CELH
7) 29:40 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
I discuss patience a lot in my videos not only because it’s important overall, but it’s especially important when the market is in a range. When you look at the Daily and Weekly charts of the Nasdaq Composite, you will see a fairly defined range over the past 5-6 weeks, and one that is showing institutional support. So, why are traders getting frustrated? My feeling is they are looking at too short of timeframes. I’m ok with members trading shorter-term, but I’m also reminding you to take a step back once in a while and look at the bigger picture. For example, a pattern I’ve noticed when we’re in a range is an early week drop in the market that tends to recover by the end of the week (forming these tighter closes). When we drop, I’ve discussed how I’m not expecting SUSTAINED downside for two reasons: 1) We are dropping to logical support levels. 2) Sentiment gets very negative very quickly. This last point is important because the market tends to fool the majority.
So, how do we deal with this in order to NOT get frustrated and to NOT get tossed around in this market? Use the five guidelines I’ve highlighted many times in recent videos. For me, I keep a concentrated portfolio of 10-20 stocks that are approximately 1-5% positions. I am currently 70% invested and I’m going to do my best to cut losses on the losing positions and let the winners run (while taking partial profits along the way). This style isn’t for everyone, which is why I encourage members to have their own plan and develop a style that works for you! Just remember, this takes time and it’s a constant learning process. Start small if you have to, learn how to make decisions, and continue to work on developing your confidence. Most importantly, don’t get frustrated! I feel there are strong opportunities into year-end and I want members to stay mentally tough and remain patient until we break out of this current range. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
5/5/23 Gold ETF (GLD) July spread selling 9000 of the $177 puts to open while buying 18,000 of the $198/$215 call spreads
5/5/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyers of 7450 June $181 upside calls up to $2.18
5/5/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also 1700 November $175 ITM puts sold to open 10.62
5/5/23 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 1500 September $190 calls $12.30 to $12.75
5/5/23 MercadoLibre (MELI) with 300 June $1210 puts bought to open for around $1.5M
5/5/23 Starbucks (SBUX) large buyer showing faith long term with 1500 January 2025 $120 calls bought at $11.10 offers, over $1.65M
5/5/23 Halliburton (HAL) with 3000 June $31 calls bought $1.37, also a buyer of 1155 June $30 calls for $1.84
5/5/23 Blackstone (BX) with 1000 August $85/$100 call spreads bought for $4.75
5/5/23 Schwab (SCHW) opening sales of 2900 August $52.50 calls at $3.40
5/5/23 ImmunoGen (IMGN) with 2000 January $15 calls bought aggressive to open $3.40
5/5/23 ImmunoGen (IMGN) also 2000 June $13 puts selling to open 1.10
5/5/23 Apellis Pharma (APLS) buyer of 1000 June $110/$120 call spreads for $1.29 today
5/5/23 Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) unusual buy 1450 next week $150/$160 call spreads
5/5/23 Taiwan Semi (TSM) opening sale 15,000 July $75 puts for 1.75
5/5/23 Taiwan Semi (TSM) also a large buy of over 4300 Sept $90 calls at $4.50 to $4.70
5/5/23 Micron (MU) with 3500 May $59 puts sold to open $0.98 in sweep bids
5/5/23 Dell (DELL) buyers of 1000 July $47.50 calls $1.15 offer
5/5/23 Super Micro (SMCI) with 1000 June $130 ITM calls opening $18.70
5/5/23 Apple (AAPL) with 12,500 August $170 puts selling to open 7.15 to 7.05 seeing little downside ahead
5/5/23 Apple (AAPL) also with 3000 July $180 ITM puts selling to open for $9.45
5/5/23 Salesforce (CRM) opening seller 1800 Nov $140 puts $3.20
5/5/23 Snowflake (SNOW) 1600 Nov $95 puts sold to open $4, similar to the CRM far OTM November put sale
5/4/23 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) seeing a midday trade buy 23,000 July $40/$43 call spreads for $0.99
5/4/23 Ultra Nasdaq ETF (TQQQ) with 2000 December $20 calls opening $1.95M as Jan. 20 adjust
5/4/23 Ultra Nasdaq ETF (TQQQ) also a buyer 1100 of the Dec. $22 calls at $8.10 adjusts January as well
5/4/23 Crocs (CROX) buyer 1000 June $120 calls for 4.50
5/4/23 MGM Resorts (MGM) with 700 January $46 puts seeing opening sales for $6.35
5/4/23 Enovix (ENVX) trading 10,000 January 2025 $20/$40 call spreads
5/4/23 Conoco (COP) opening seller 1250 July $97.50 puts $6.50
5/4/23 Citigroup (C) buyers of 10,000 June $49 calls at $0.58 offers
5/4/23 Eli Lilly (LLY) with 1350 July $390 puts sold to open for $6
5/4/23 Eli Lilly (LLY) also buyer 550 September $450 calls at $22.15 offer
5/4/23 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) with a buyer of 2000 July $26 calls for $3
5/4/23 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) another 1000 July 26 calls trade 3.40 offer late
5/4/23 Arcus Bio (RCUS) spreads buying 2000 October $25 calls up to 2.75 and selling the $15/$12.50 put spreads
5/4/23 ImmunoGen (IMGN) 1500 June $10 calls bought $4 to $4.20 this afternoon
5/4/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 2000 August $90 calls bought midday for $7.15 to $8.65 sweep offers
5/4/23 Apple (AAPL) opening sellers of 5000 August $165 puts $8.85 into earnings
5/4/23 ON Semi (ON) with another 1600 October $75 puts bought $7.35 offer
5/4/23 Nvidia (NVDA) with 2350 August 200 puts sold to open 4.40 into midday sell off
5/4/23 Fortinet (FTNT) block 1000 May 60 puts sold 2.12 into earnings tonight
5/4/23 Fortinet (FTNT) also seeing May $65 call buyers into earnings
5/4/23 Meta (META) large buyer of 2200 August $240 calls at $21.55, adjusting some January $250 calls
5/4/23 Amazon (AMZN) with buyers of over 3900 January $105 calls for $14.10 to $14.50 offers