Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:05 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, WING, RVNC
4) 15:35 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AMD, AEHR
5) 16:30 Stock Review – Software: PANW, FTNT, DUOL, CDNS
6) 17:45 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), VKTX, TERN, ETNB, RCUS, KRYS, AXSM, PTCT, IMCR, ITCI, VRNA, AUPH, TGTX, AMPH, CBAY, BBIO, APLS, ISEE
7) 22:40 Stock Review – Housing: ITB (ETF), XHB (ETF), DHI, MTH, PHM, MHO, TMHC, KBH, LEN, TOL
8) 24:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMCI, SGML, ANET, PODD, DXCM, SWAV, TMDX, LNTH, CELH, CROX, DECK, ONON, FOUR, TXRH, ASO
9) 31:30 Stocks near buyable ranges: ORCL, RVNC, AXSM
10) 32:55 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
Coming into this past week, I discussed the possibility of a shakeout down to the 50-day moving average for the Nasdaq Composite. We saw that last Tuesday. As I mentioned in the MidWeek Video (4/26/23), the good news is that the drop was on lighter than normal volume. The bad news is that many growth stocks showed weakness beneath the surface, especially the Semiconductors. The remainder of the week saw a strong recovery on higher than normal volume. This is where we assess the positives and negatives in the market. Positives: 1) The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are incredibly resilient, especially when you consider all the recent bank failures. 2) The Mega Cap names continue to act very well. Negatives: 1) The Fed is still raising rates and expected to raise another 0.25% at their meeting this Wednesday, May 3rd. Although they are likely to pause soon, they might keep rates “higher for longer” in order to fight inflation. 2) The overall breadth is weak, as seen in the small and mid caps (IWM and MDY). Unfortunately, many companies that missed their earnings this week dropped between 10-40%.

So what do we do? Try to stick to those five rules I have mentioned in several recent videos: 1) Use strong stocks. 2) Get strong entry points. 3) Use lighter positions. 4) Keep some cash. 5) Manage trades as best as possible. I discuss this last one in the Market Commentary section of this video. It involves making decisions and staying mentally tough. This past week, I decided on Tuesday to reduce some of my weaker positions and stick with some of my stronger ones. I emailed a Market Note to Members in order to give you transparency. The point isn’t for members to copy everything I’m doing. The goal is to give you visibility to my guidelines and explain the reasoning behind my decisions. As always, I encourage members to form their own rules and make decisions based on their timeframe and overall investment objectives.

From here, I still think we can head higher over the next few months, especially when we get more clarity from the Fed. The key point I would like to stress is that it won’t be an easy move higher. There will still be volatility along the way, which is why I’m suggesting lighter positions until the overall breadth improves. I am currently 50% invested and will do my best to stick with the winners and cut the weaker acting positions. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Monday, May 1st at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.

Unusual Option Activity:
4/28/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with a block of 5000 June 9th $315 puts sold to open for $5.29
4/28/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) June $167 puts with 55,000X bought today as the $165 adjust, a rolling hedge
4/28/23 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) some big bear action buying 11,500 June $339 puts $6.10
4/28/23 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) opening sale of 400 June $480 calls at $22
4/28/23 Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) seeing buyers of 500 far OTM June $2400 calls up to $6.50
4/28/23 Five Below (FIVE) opening seller 500 August $210 calls $11 to $10.60
4/28/23 Burlington Stores (BURL) with 955 June 2nd $160 puts sold to open $1.64
4/28/23 Booking Holdings (BKNG) strong chart and seeing 122 January $2450 puts sold to open for $157.60
4/28/23 Valero (VLO) large buyer of 1700 January $120 calls for $12.60
4/28/23 Bluebird Bio (BLUE) opening sale of 3700 Aug $5 ITM puts for $1.25
4/28/23 Iveric Bio (ISEE) seeing a large buy of 4500 May $36 calls for $1.25
4/28/23 Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) with 5000 June $30 puts sold to open $0.70
4/28/23 Apple (AAPL) with 10,000 May 167.50 puts bought $4.05
4/27/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 15,000 August $290 puts sold to open 6.25 to 6
4/27/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also buyers of 6500 October $314 puts $15.53
4/27/23 Energy ETF (XLE) with 70,000 December $74 puts bought $3.78, adjusting June $76 puts
4/27/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 40,000 June $388 puts opening as $384 adjust, also buyers of 5000 May 13th (W) $404 puts
4/27/23 Healthcare ETF (XLV) with 2500 September $123 puts sold to open 2.47
4/27/23 Range Resources (RRC) seeing 1350 June $26/$28 call spreads bought for $0.73
4/27/23 Pacific Bio (PACB) opening seller 1000 September 10 puts 1.55
4/27/23 Crispr (CRSP) with 1000 October $65 calls sold to open for $3.20 to $3.10
4/27/23 DexCom (DXCM) with 300 June 2024 $125/$110 bear risk reversals opening for credit of $7.20
4/27/23 Nvidia (NVDA) opening seller 600 August $235 puts 11.95
4/27/23 Microsoft (MSFT) large buys of 1500 August $315 calls up to 12.60
4/27/23 Microsoft (MSFT) also 7500 June 2nd (W) $315 calls sold to open 3.30
4/27/23 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing late day opening sales of 10,000 May $310 puts for $10
4/27/23 Google (GOOGL) 2300 Dec. $105 puts selling to open 8.35
4/27/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyer of 7000 July $110 calls $8.14 adjusting June $105
4/27/23 Super Micro (SMCI) with 1670 August $130 calls opening above $5 as May 120 adjust
4/27/23 Apple (AAPL) with 3800 September 2024 $180 calls bought $20 for over $7.5M
4/27/23 Meta (META) July $250 calls with 3500X bought for over $4M as near-term calls adjust out and up
4/27/23 American Water (AWK) deep ITM December $145 and $150 calls each open 1500X for net $3.85M