Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), NVDA, AMD, ACLS, ALGM, LSCC, CRUS, PI, MBLY, AEHR, GFS, SMCI
4) 14:10 Stock Review – Software: PANW, FTNT, TENB, AI, AYX, CDNS, ALTR, ANSS
5) 19:30 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), RVNC, CBAY, AMPH, APLS
6) 20:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SGML, WING, TXRH, DRI, DECK, LNTH, PODD, DXCM, TMDX, AXON, ASO, PERI, FOUR, INOD
7) 28:35 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In recent videos, I’ve discussed some of the top questions on people’s minds. 1) When is the Fed going to end their rate-hiking cycle? I think they are done for the year. There’s a 50-60% chance they raise one more 0.25% at their next meeting on May 3rd. Either way, we are getting close to the end of this cycle. 2) Are the problems with Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks contained or are they going to spread into the banking system? My feeling is it will be contained based on the unusual options activity in KRE (the Regional Bank ETF), but that doesn’t mean I am interest in this sector. Other questions have to do with recession, macro conditions, etc.
Rather than overthinking the macro scenario, I prefer to focus on an important question about the current market. Is the strength in tech and the Nasdaq going to lift this market? Or are the weaker sectors going to weigh down on the entire market? Of course, no one knows, but I prefer to remain defensive until we get more clarity. By defense, I mean using lighter than normal positions and keeping cash on hand to help reduce volatility and cushion potential downside. I am currently 40% invested. If the market moves higher, I hope to participate with some of the stronger stocks mentioned in this video. If the market moves lower, I hope to contain the downside with the way I am positioned. One point I would like to reiterate is that trading/investing doesn’t have to be “all or none.” In other words, you can keep some cash available and buy smaller positions if you find yourself hesitating too much. Keep working on building your decision-making muscle, even if it’s with lighter positions.
I am still expecting some volatility this week as we head into the end of the quarter. Looking past that, we could see some money flowing into the market as we start the new quarter, and with the IRA contribution deadline of April 15th. As always, I will take this day-by-day and stay open-minded. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
3/24/23 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) buyers 2000 June 2024 $320 calls $31.19 as June 2023 calls adjust
3/24/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) large buyer into the close for 5500 May $178 calls at $4.34 offers. Over $2.3M
3/24/23 Biotech ETF (XBI) a bullish trade opens 15,000 May $78/$65 bull risk reversals at $0.72 debit
3/24/23 Elf Beauty (ELF) 1550 April $80 calls with buyers $2.05 to $2.15
3/24/23 MGM Resorts (MGM) buyer of 2000 May $40 puts for $2.36 to $2.41
3/24/23 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) buyer of 1000 May $92.50 puts at $2.95
3/24/23 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) with 1800 May $50 puts bought $2.07
3/24/23 Chipotle (CMG) seeing a rare large options trade buy 1000 May $1500 puts to open $40 to $41.20
3/24/23 Schlumberger (SLB) opening sale of 500 June 2024 $42.50 puts at $6.50
3/24/23 Chevron (CVX) with 1800 September 170 calls sold to open 6.70
3/24/23 Zillow (Z) buyer 1420 August $40 puts $4.05 looking to add to open interest
3/24/23 Schwab (SCHW) opening sale of over 4000 January $40 puts at $4.05
3/24/23 Guardant Health (GH) opening sale 500 January $20 puts for $3.80
3/24/23 AbbVie (ABBV) with 6200 April 160 calls sold to open 1.64
3/24/23 Arcus Bio (RCUS) with 1900 July $20 calls bought up to $1.70 form $1.50
3/24/23 Alibaba (BABA) buyer of 2000 July $85/$115 call spreads for $8.85
3/24/23 Shopify (SHOP) late day buyers of 6155 May $50 calls at $2.53
3/24/23 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing buyers of 2700 April 14th (W) $285 calls this morning for $1.4M
3/24/23 Arista Networks (ANET) opening sales of 1100 May $165 puts for $9.80
3/24/23 Palo Alto (PANW) seeing size buyers 1175 June $186.67 calls $17 to $17.15 offers
3/24/23 Apple (AAPL) opening sale of 1660 April 28th $167.50 calls for $1.85
3/24/23 Amazon (AMZN) with a massive opening sale of 25,000 March 2024 $115 calls for $9.41
3/23/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyers for 17,000 May $377 puts at $5.42, adjusting some of the $373 puts
3/23/23 High Yield ETF (HYG) buyer of 10,000 April $73.5 puts for $0.86
3/23/23 Gold Miners ETF (GDX) seeing large buyers for 3600 September $32 calls at $2.97 to $3.05
3/23/23 ON Holding (ONON) July $35 calls 6500X bought $1.15+ in opening 15 minutes
3/23/23 Roblox (RBLX) buyer of 600 May $35 ITM calls today $10.15 to $10.50
3/23/23 Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) with 500 May $105 puts sold to open for $5
3/23/23 Enphase Energy (ENPH) size sweep buys 690 August $180 puts at $16.70 offer
3/23/23 Enphase Energy (ENPH) also 365 August $185 puts bought 18.50
3/23/23 Peabody Energy (BTU) opening sale of 2000 May $26 calls at $1.55
3/23/23 Bank of Ozark (OZK) seeing 1500x3000x May $30/$20 put ratio spreads open for $1.05 debits
3/23/23 Wells Fargo (WFC) April $34 puts up to 8800X
3/23/23 SL Green Realty (SLG) big buyer of 16,000 May $15 puts at $1.60, adjusting the $22.50 puts that have tripled
3/23/23 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) sell to open 2100 July $180 puts for $10.50 and buy the $300/$400 call spreads for $12.30
3/23/23 Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) with 2000 May $27.50/$17.50 put spreads bought for $2.15, adjusting the April put spreads lower
3/23/23 Apple (AAPL) seeing 3000 May 5th $155 puts sold to open for $3.75
3/23/23 Nvidia (NVDA) with buyers 2000 April $295/$310 call spreads
3/23/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 5000 May $85 puts sell to buy 5000 of the $105/$120 call spreads
3/23/23 Micron (MU) opening seller of 2000 April $59 puts for $2.30, reports next week
3/23/23 Super Micro (SMCI) bullish flow in May $105 calls for $19.30
3/23/23 Arista Networks (ANET) 300 June 180 calls bought for $8.90