Latest Yahoo Finance article: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-things-need-to-happen-before-the-market-turns-around-145106875.html

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:50 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), OIH (ETF), XOP (ETF), APA, DVN, HP, MRO, MUR, TDW, CPE, CLR, EOG, MTDR, MPC, HFC
4) 14:30 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: CF, MOS, NTR, BG, ZIM, NMM, DAC, ITCI, LLY, UNP, BMY, SG, BROS, PANW, PCRX
5) 23:25 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
Reviewing the Nasdaq Composite this week: Monday was a distribution day (a down day on heavier volume than the previous day). Tuesday was another distribution day. Wednesday and Thursday were classic, low-volume short covering days that you normally see in a downtrend. Friday was another distribution day. Overall for the week, the Nasdaq Composite was down -3.53% on heavier volume than the previous week.

I did notice some subtle positive signs in the other indexes. The S&P 500 was down -2.88% for the week, but it occurred on lighter volume than the previous week. The Russell 2000 was only down -1.06% for the week, and also on lighter volume. The Russell 2000 is important because it’s an index of small and midcap stocks, so it shows an area of risk appetite. The fact that it was down the least of all the major indexes AND on lighter volume could be a subtle sign that the selling in riskier areas is slowing down. Before you jump out of your chair with excitement, it certainly doesn’t mean we are out of the woods. We still have to get through this Wednesday’s Fed meeting where they are expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%.

In this video, I discuss a possible strategy into quarter-end. The market has already priced in the quarter-point interest rate hike this week, and I have a feeling Powell will repeat his “careful” stance on further rate hikes at the press conference following the announcement. That doesn’t mean he won’t hike any more this year. It simply means that he will asses the data and be cognizant of the tensions in Russia and Ukraine. My feeling is the market will interpret this as bullish, and use it an excuse for a quarter-end mean reversion trade. Since I have a heavy cash position, I will likely play this by scaling into an index ETF. Why? For two reasons: 1) There are very few stocks setting up and 2) The worst feeling is if the overall market rallies and your stocks barely move.

Again, I will take this day-by-day and of course manage risk if the position turns against me, but it could be a possible strategy for a tactical bounce over the last week to 10 days of the quarter. If you have any questions about this or about any stocks not covered in this weekend’s video, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be Monday, March 14th, at 7:30PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Unusual Option Activity
3/11/22 Apple (AAPL) with more than 5,000 April 8th (W) $165 calls sold to open this morning from $2.84 to $2.60
3/11/22 Apple (AAPL) also with over 19,500 July $180 calls sold to open today for $3.20 to $3
3/11/22 Peabody Energy (BTU) with 2000 April $25 ITM puts sold to open for $4.40
3/11/22 Helmerich & Payne (HP) buyers of 1000 June $50 calls for $2.55 to open
3/11/22 Holly Frontier (HFC) aggressive buyers in April $38 calls for $2.30 after the late day call buyers yesterday
3/11/22 Valero (VLO) buyers of 3000 April $100/$110 call spreads
3/11/22 Schlumberger (SLB) with 4350 July $27.50 puts sold to open for $0.60
3/10/22 Mosaic (MOS) size buyer here for 3000 January $70 calls $9.60
3/10/22 Bunge (BG) with 1,500 January $165 calls bought today from $1.70 to $1.75
3/10/22 ZIM Shipping (ZIM) with 700 March 25th (W) $76 ITM puts sold to open for $15.50 to $16.10
3/10/22 Peabody Energy (BTU) with 1000 October $20 puts selling to open $5.20 to $5.10
3/10/22 Peabody Energy (BTU) also with buyers of 2500 April $23 calls and 1000 January $17 calls bought for $11.30
3/10/22 Holly Frontier (HFC) late day buyers of 2350 April $37 calls $1.85 to $2
3/10/22 US Steel (X) late day buyers of 3000 May $35 calls near $3.30 to open
3/10/22 Eli Lilly (LLY) with 1375 March $265 puts selling to open $5.45
3/10/22 Canadian Natural (CNQ) with 300 January $70 puts sold to open for $16.30
3/10/22 Apache (APA) with 4000 July $60 OTM calls bought for $0.97 to open
3/10/22 Chevron (CVX) sellers to open 1400 June $160 puts at $8.80 bid
3/10/22 Altria (MO) with 2700 September $37.50 puts sold to open $0.90