Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 13:40 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), NVDA, AMD, ON, AMAT, MU
4) 16:25 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: XLF (ETF), JPM, GS, XOP (ETF), EOG, FANG, DVN, F, LITE, MP, BCTX
5) 19:55 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
I’m noticing many similarities to the Fall of 2018 correction and the current market from a technical, monetary policy, and sentiment perspective. It doesn’t mean that the market has to correct as much as it did in 2018, but it’s definitely worth continuing to be defensive and patient until conditions improve. In this video, I discuss how when we started to break below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages back in 2018, sentiment was very complacent. I’m noticing the same thing now. The market continues to correct and many sentiment measures are fairly neutral. In addition, the Fed is hawkish and that continues to weigh on the market. Most importantly, there are very few stocks setting up. In recent videos, I’ve discussed stocks holding up well but I mentioned to either just watch them or use light positions if you decide to trade. The main reason for that is that breakouts have a very low probability of working in corrective markets.

From here, we need to see three major things: 1) The Fed change their tune back to being dovish 2) Fear to pick up in the market 3) Stocks to set up and look healthy again. All of these will take some time, which is why I continue to preach patience and defense. Of course, we will have some countertrend/oversold rallies, but don’t have FOMO when these happen. If you want to try and participate in them, you can use index ETFs, but again, keep things light. I am approximately 20% invested and maintain a high cash position, mainly because I’m finding nothing to buy and also because most of my watchlist is not working. Please do your best to protect capital and protect your confidence. If you have any questions about stocks not covered in this video or any general market questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be Monday, January 24th at 7:30PM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity
1/19/22 US Steel (X) with 5,000 June $23 calls bought for $3.33 as some February $24 calls adjust and roll out
1/19/22 Biotech ETF (XBI) seeing spreads sell 10,000 April $75 puts to buy 10,000 of the $110/$125 call spreads
1/19/22 Exxon (XOM) opening sale of 1000 January 2023 $72.5 puts for $9.20
1/19/22 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing size buyers of March $245 puts this afternoon 2000X at $16.25
1/18/22 Apple (AAPL) opening sale 2500 April $180 puts at $15.15 bid adjusts September $150 short puts
1/18/22 Tower Semi (TSEM) with 2000 July $40 calls bought for $4.54 to open, adjusting some January bull spreads
1/18/22 Nvidia (NVDA) large block of 4000 April $230 deep ITM calls opening $43.25
1/18/22 Taiwan Semi (TSM) with 2225 June $135 calls bought $12 to $12.45 into weakness
1/18/22 Taiwan Semi (TSM) also 900 July $140 calls bought $10.90 offer
1/18/22 Goldman Sachs (GS) seeing 6,000 February $325 puts sold to open mid-morning down to $3.50
1/18/22 Tesla (TSLA) seeing buyers of March $1010 puts this morning 1200X for around $10M
1/18/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 25,000 February $438 puts bought to open earlier today up to $4.85
1/18/22 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) with 3450 February $290 puts bought this morning near $8.05
1/14/22 Amazon (AMZN) with 1000 July $2800/$2300 bull put spreads opening for $75.50, some March spreads roll
1/14/22 Occidental (OXY) buyers of 1000 January 2024 $27 ITM calls for $12.30