Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 14:50 Comments on this week’s Fed meeting
4) 16:55 Stock Review – Software: CRWD, ZS, OKTA, DDOG, DOCU, DOMO, DT, TEAM, ESTC, NET, NOW, TWLO, CVLT, ASAN, BILL
5) 23:00 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, FB, MSFT, ADBE, NFLX, PYPL, SQ, SHOP, TSLA, QQQ (ETF)
6) 27:00 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), NVDA, MRVL, MPWR, AMAT, LRCX, ASML
7) 30:10 Stock Review – Medical Products: ALGN, DXCM, INMD, IMLN
8) 31:30 Stock Review – Biotech: LLY, ALNY, ORMP, VOR, NKTX
9) 36:30 Stock Review – Retail: LULU, SKX, DECK, NKE, FND, ETSY, WING
10) 38:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: ROKU, SNAP, SE, ZBRA, AXON, ALB
11) 42:00 Setups: CUTR, NVDA
12) 43:05 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
In this video, I review my market commentary over the past two weeks and discuss some lessons on how to navigate through the recent volatility. About two weeks ago, I discussed getting defensive because we were seeing two different markets. Mega Caps were strong but Small and Mid Caps were very weak. Whenever there are mixed signals, I will always default to a defensive posture in order to protect members in case market conditions get worse. By defensive, I mean raising some cash, reducing new buys, and stopping yourself out of any stocks that have significantly broken down below their 10-week moving averages. I never discussed shorting because: 1) I think it’s too difficult and 2) I would never encourage shorting in a liquidity driven market. It’s just not worth the frustration.

In the 7/14/21 MidWeek Video, I mentioned that I reduced my exposure and came into this week about 50% invested. The first lesson is that trading/investing does not have to be an all or nothing situation. In other words, your two choices are not 100% invested or 100% cash. You can meet in between, especially when there are mixed signals. Also, you don’t have to use full positions. You can buy 20 or 30 shares instead of 100. The second lesson is that even though I reduced my exposure, I sold my weaker positions and stayed in my strongest stocks. Again, exposure yourself to the best merchandise out there.

When we gapped down on Monday 7/19/21, it was nice to see the Nasdaq Composite hold its 10-week moving average and the S&P 500 hold its 50-day moving average. I discussed these positives during Monday night’s webinar. The other positives were the strength in Mega Cap stocks, the strong price action in Software stocks, and the overall sentiment was getting very negative. When the selling started to stabilize and setups started to show up throughout the week, I increased my exposure from 50% to 70%. I made this decision because I interpreted that the price action was improving during the week. The third lesson is: If you don’t have the time to watch the market closely (because you are working), or if you have trouble making decisions (because you a newer to the markets), then take smaller positions and use the 10-week as your guide. In other words, don’t get distracted by the noise and volatility, take a step back, and use the 10-week moving average as your guide. Again, I’m here to promote calm, confident traders, and using lighter positions is one way to reduce your emotions.

From here, I would expect some backing and filling, and maybe some end of the month profit taking, but I am not expecting any major downside. In the 7/21/21 MidWeek Video, I addressed the question: Is this correction over? Of course, no one knows, but it’s looking more and more like this was a normal retest of the recent breakouts on the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500. The best we can do from here is sit tight in your positions (assuming you have strong entries on them) and be patient. If you are a trader and want to take some profits, that of course is a decision you should make based on your own game plan. If you have higher levels of cash, make sure to get strong entry points on any new buys, and please do NOT chase any extended stocks. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be Sunday, July 25th at 11AM EST. The Zoom link was already emailed to all members. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity
7/23/21 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) buyers of 1350 August $105/$110 call spreads
7/23/21 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) with 2000 March $50 calls bought for $4.19
7/23/21 Himax Technologies (HIMX) afternoon buyers of 2000 August 6th (W) $12.50 calls
7/23/21 Nvidia (NVDA) with over 6000 September $220 calls bought for $4.30 to $4.40
7/23/21 AutoDesk (ADSK) seeing 1500 January $230 puts sold to open for $4.65; size October $300 calls bought this week too
7/23/21 Russell 200 ETF (IWM) bull spread today buys 5000 September $222 calls for $6.07 and sells the $210 puts 10,000X for $4.92
7/23/21 Visa (V) buyers today of 2,200 October $265 calls for $4 to open, earnings on 7-27
7/23/21 Alphabet (GOOGL) buyers of 1,500 August $2,750 calls for $30.52, earnings next week
7/23/21 MasterCard (MA) October $375 calls opened into weakness the other day and today 2000 October $390 calls hot with buy side flow
7/23/21 MasterCard (MA) also seeing over 6,000 of next week’s $400 calls bought ahead of earnings
7/23/21 Facebook (FB) buyers of 1000 October $410 calls for $5.65 to $7.20, strong reaction off of the SNAP/TWTR results
7/23/21 Facebook (FB) also with 1000 June 2022 $520 calls bought up to $8.95
7/23/21 Square (SQ) with 2500 Aug. 13th (W) $255 calls opening $18.35 to $18.55, captures earnings 8-5 and likely adjusting the $235 calls trading 1850X
7/23/21 Tesla (TSLA) with over 4,000 August 13th (W) $650 puts sold to open today from $36.85 to $35.85
7/23/21 Apple (AAPL) with 5850 Aug. 13th (W) $148 puts selling to open $4.30 to $4.20, an extremely popular play in it the past few weeks
7/23/21 Snowflake (SNOW) next week’s $285 calls active with buyers today at $2.65, over 4500X
7/23/21 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyers of 2,500 August $88 calls for $5.50 today, earnings 7-27
7/23/21 Roku (ROKU) 1,350 August 6th (W) $470 calls being bought for $10.70 to open, earnings on 8-4 and higher each of the last four
7/23/21 Etsy (ETSY) opening sellers of 850 January $190 puts for $17.50 to $17
7/23/21 Micron (MU) with 1500 September 2022 $70 puts sold to open for $8.15 today
7/23/21 Micron (MU) also with 1650 September 2022 $67.50 puts sold to open from $7 to $7.05
7/23/21 Western Digital (WDC) continues to see bullish flow with 5000 August $71/$76 call spreads bought to open for $0.57
7/22/21 Digital Ocean (DOCN) buyers earlier of 875 August $50 calls for $7.70, follows buyers of 1000 August $45 calls earlier this week
7/22/21 CrowdStrike (CRWD) opening sale 300 June 2022 $250 puts for $36.10
7/22/21 Asana (ASAN) with 600 November $75 calls bought today $8.80 to $9.40 while it appears 1000 Jan. $50 calls closing out
7/22/21 Adobe (ADBE) 2000 Aug $550 puts sold to open
7/22/21 Apple (AAPL) 4500 Aug 142 puts being sold to open
7/22/21 Marvell Technology (MRVL) with 1000 August $59 calls bought for $1.61
7/22/21 Snap (SNAP) buyer 1200 August $63 calls $4.20 offer into earnings
7/22/21 KKR (KKR) with nearly 2000 December $60 calls bought $4.20 offer after the strong BX quarter
7/22/21 Skyworks (SWKS) spread buying 325 Jan. 2023 $230 calls $16.75 and selling 600 of the $145 puts to open $12.55