I feel that the pullback in September was a normal 8-12% correction within an overall uptrend. This analysis is mainly based on the price action of stocks. As I mentioned in recent videos, I don’t think we will shoot straight up to new highs, but I also don’t see any SUSTAINED downside because of 1) The price action of stocks 2) The Fed and 3) Sentiment. Over the near-term, I am expecting sideways action as we continue to carve out bases in the major indexes and many MegaCap stocks. We could see some weakness early in the upcoming week and I would use that as an opportunity to add to positions ahead of regular cycle Options Expiration week (which is the third Friday of every month). Regarding the recent news with the President and the upcoming election, I am reminding everyone to separate the news (and your politics) from your analysis of the market. The news is toxic but the price action is fairly strong right now. I simply don’t want people to potentially repeat mistakes made in April when the news was miserable but market conditions were improving. As always, if you’re not comfortable, you can start with smaller than normal positions and let the market prove itself to you. If you have any questions, you can ask me during the next webinar on Sunday, October 4th at 11AM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Unusual Option Activity:
10/2/20 PayPal (PYPL) with 500 January 2023 $135 puts sold to open today for $14.85, adjusting some January 2022 short puts
10/2/20 Virgin Galactic (SPCE) consolidating the recent gap higher and the October 30th (W) $24.50 calls active today with buyers, smaller lots
10/2/20 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) buyer of 2,500 March $300 calls this morning for $7.66, around $2M
10/2/20 Alibaba (BABA) buyers active today for more than 1,785 June $290 calls for $35 to $35.60
10/2/20 Square (SQ) buyers of the October 30th (W) $165 calls from $12 to $12.60 to open today, over 1000X. Earnings not until 11-5 but should capture PYPL the week prior
10/2/20 Pinterest (PINS) buyer of 2,150 January $30 calls for $15.65
10/2/20 Fastly (FSLY) with 500 March $75 puts sold to open for $10.45 in a stock replacement
10/2/20 Peloton (PTON) buyers of the October 9th (W) $115 calls for $2.50, over 6000X as the $100 calls roll up into strength
10/2/20 Twilio (TWLO) with 3,000 October 30th (W) $290 calls bought $20.25 as the weekly $270 calls roll
10/2/20 Twilio (TWLO) also with 1,200 October $290 calls bought today with the positive guidance
10/2/20 Apple (AAPL) with 20,000 November $120 ITM puts being sold to open down to $11 this morning
10/2/20 Teledoc (TDOC) 1000 next week $230 calls bought up to $5.50
10/2/20 Twitter (TWTR) calls hot this morning, the Oct. 30th (W) $47.5 calls that has 8500 rolled to yesterday trading 7400X this morning
10/2/20 Cloudflare (NET) size buys coming into November $41 calls $5.20 offer for 2900X
10/2/20 DocuSign (DOCU) steady flow into March $220 calls 850X at $39.10 to $39.50
10/2/20 Docusign (DOCU) buyers active next week $230 calls, 1600X
10/2/20 NVIDIA (NVDA) buyer 1000 Oct. 30th (W) $540 calls for $25 into early weakness
10/2/20 Zoom (ZM) over 2300 next week $500 calls active early at $20
10/2/20 Splunk (SPLK) large opening buy 1250 November $200 calls $12.19
10/1/20 Etsy (ETSY) with 425 January 2022 $125 puts sold to open for $30 late day
10/1/20 Tesla (TSLA) March 2022 calls seeing a lot of action today with 1000 each of the $600, $750, and $850 opening while June 2022 seeing 1400 each of the $750 and $850 calls bought
10/1/20 Fed-Ex (FDX) with 1,300 January $230 puts sold to buy the $270/$330 call spread at a net $0.30 debit
10/1/20 Alibaba (BABA) with 1000 March $275 puts sold to open $22.60, also today a buy-write with 1050 Dec. $335 calls sold for $8
10/1/20 Twitter (TWTR) with 8500 Oct. 30th (W) $47.5 calls opening as the $45.5 adjust
10/1/20 Okta (OKTA) with buyers of 300 January 2022 $270 calls for $30.05 and 100 January 2022 $240 calls, the former over $915K. OKTA has seen recent buyers in the November $240 calls, October $230 calls, and November $170 calls while put sales active in the January 2022 $195 strike for $2.5M.
10/1/20 Zendesk (ZEN) more bull flow today with 400 November $115 calls bought $4.50 to $4.60
10/1/20 Homebuilders ETF (XHB) with 10,000 December $55/$58 call spreads bought for $1.41
10/1/20 Atlas Air (AAWW) opening sale 1000 November $57.50 puts $3.40 to $3.30
10/1/20 Facebook (FB) with 9800 January $265 calls bought $26.50, trades with 8000 March $265 calls that may be closing
10/1/20 Google (GOOG) with 900 March $1,490 calls bought for $158 and 1,100 January $1490 calls bought for $128.50 to open, both around $14M
10/1/20 Bluebird Bio (BLUE) the October $75 OTM calls being bought 1800X for $0.50 and name that has seen over 2900 October $65 calls bought lately
10/1/20 Microsoft (MSFT) with 950 September $275 calls bought $9.45 to open
10/1/20 Beyond Meat (BYND) opening sale of 3,000 October 23rd (W) $160 puts for $6.50, may be targeting earnings which should be around month-end
10/1/20 Facebook (FB) buyer 2000 June 2021 $350 calls for $11.20, adjusts out of 1,025 January $270 calls
10/1/20 NVIDIA (NVDA) late morning buyer 1200 Oct. 30th (W) $540 calls to open $32 to $32.50
10/1/20 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 1500 OTM March $125 calls today above offer at $3.50
10/1/20 Zillow (Z) buyers opening 400 May $150 calls for $7.10 today as it continues to work higher
10/1/20 Fastly (FSLY) with over 3000 March $100 calls being bought to open $21 to $22, and a name that has been active with put sales and also still has 1500 December $100 calls in open interest from a large buyer.
10/1/20 Pinterest (PINS) 5000 December $42 calls bought $6.34, rolling up the $38 calls
10/1/20 Pinterest (PINS) now with 7000 December $45 calls bought for $5.61, adjusting the November $39 calls
10/1/20 Zoom (ZM) action in January 2022 seeing 250 of the $640//$770 call spreads bought and 500 of the $650/$780 call spreads. ZM also a buyer of 350 February $430 puts to open for $60
10/1/20 Crowdstrike (CRWD) with 400 ITM June $180 puts sold to open today from $50.14 to $50.08 in stock replacements, just above $2M
10/1/20 Datadog (DDOG) with 400 March $100 puts sold to open this morning around $15.50 in stock replacements
10/1/20 Crowdstrike (CRWD) smaller lots, but 1000 next week $145 calls active
10/1/20 Sea (SE) with more bullish near-term flows with 1,200 October $165 calls bought up to $4.50
10/1/20 Pinterest (PINS) buyer 1000 Oct. 30th (W) 446 calls $2.50 offer
10/1/20 Etsy (ETSY) with 1,000 October $126 calls bought $5.75 to $6.10 with shares up 3%
10/1/20 DraftKings (DKNG) early action buying 945 Jan. 2022 $85 OTM calls to open up to $15.10
10/1/20 Datadog (DDOG) 2500 next week $100 calls active w/ buyers
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:45 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Russell 2000)
3) 12:10 NEW FOCUS LIST (from 9/26 video) – AMZN, MSFT, ADBE, AAPL, CRM, QQQ (ETF), CRWD, ZS, OKTA, VEEV, NOW, TSLA, Z, MA, SQ, NVDA, ZM, SGEN, TXG, GH, NVTA, ADPT, ARKG (ETF)
4) 23:20 Stock Review – Software: DDOG, FSLY, SAIL, SE, SHOP, TWLO, ZEN, NET, BILL, FVRR, BAND, ESTC
5) 30:20 Stock Review – Homebuilders/Housing Related: MTH, LEN, KBH, LGIH, CCS, LOW, XHB (ETF), ITB (ETF), RDFN, FTHM, EXPI
6) 35:00 General Ideas/Commentary: DKNG, PENN, AAWW, ETSY, HZNP, PINS, PTON, STMP, BABA, JD, BBY, LB, TGT, DKS, HIBB, VSTO, DECK, DPZ, TWST, IIPR, MRVL, NFLX, BYND
7) 43:05 Current Setups – MRVL, HZNP, ESTC, FSLY, CRWD
8) 44:05 Conclusion/Summary