I remain bullish into the US Presidential Election for the reasons I outlined in the past several videos. I summarized them in my recent article for Yahoo Finance (see link below). Over the short-term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking this week because the week after regular cycle options expiration tends to be weak and also because strong months tend to see end of the month profit taking. As I mentioned in my Wednesday MidWeek Video, if we saw strength into last Thursday and Friday, I was looking to lock in some profits and reduce exposure. I ended up taking down my overall exposure from fully invested back down to 50% invested. That way, if we do see a pullback this week, I will have cash to jump on some stocks if they come down to logical support levels. If we continue higher, I still have plenty of exposure and hope to participate. Again, this type of trading doesn’t work for everyone, which is why I encourage you to know your own timeframe. If you can’t watch the screens all day and have a longer-term timeframe, then take smaller positions, get a strong entry point, be patient with your positions, and use the 10-week moving average as your guide. See you Sunday for the next Stock Screening Webinar.
Link to MarketSmith Trial: https://marketsmith.investors.com/ms-platform/?src=A00459A&refcode=JF_Links
Link to my recent Yahoo Finance article: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stock-market-higher-into-presidential-election-152850993.html
Mike Webster’s Weekend Video: https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-update-picture-perfect-bull-market/
Unusual Option Activity:
8/21/20 Salesforce (CRM) buyer 15,000 November $210 calls to open for $15. CRM buyer earlier for 2000 next week $217.50 calls at $2.40, earnings 8-25
8/21/20 Amazon (AMZN) size buy 2700 November $3300 calls at $273 for over $73M
8/21/20 Netflix (NFLX) now large buy 5700 November $500 calls for $41
8/21/20 Adobe (ADBE) large buy 5700 October $480 calls at $24.40 and 1900 January $480 calls at $44.10
8/21/20 DR Horton (DHI) large spread selling 10,000 January $60 puts to buy $80/$95 call spreads as Housing remains hot, similar structure to numerous spreads this week
8/21/20 Tesla (TSLA) buyers active in January $2200 calls this morning 2150X trading for over $70M
8/21/20 Docusign (DOCU) 330 Sep 11th (W) $232.5 calls bought $6.40 to $6.50
8/21/20 Teladoc (TDOC) more Aug calls rolling to Sep 11th (W) $230 calls
8/21/20 Apple (AAPL) aggressive sweep buyers 2275 Sep. 25th (W) $500 calls up to $13.50 offer early
8/21/20 Apple (AAPL) also buyers active 2100 June 2021 $700 calls early $13 to $14.35
8/21/20 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 3,000 January $87.50 calls bought early $10.20 to $10.60 with shares flagging after a nice run
8/20/20 Facebook (FB) opening sale 1250 February $210 puts $9.20
8/20/20 Elastic NV (ESTC) with the August $85 calls bought on 7/17 close and buy 1,297 October $95 calls for $15.70
8/20/20 Netflix (NFLX) size buyer of 5,900 November $495 calls for $44
8/20/20 Netflix (NFLX) also with 1000 March $640 OTM calls opening today above $20
8/20/20 Microsoft (MSFT) buyers active 5500 Sep. 25th (W) $225 calls $2.63
8/20/20 Zillow (Z) opening sale 7000 January 2022 $70 puts for $14.10, showing major confidence in long-term
8/19/20 Zillow (Z) opening buy 1350 January 2022 $120 calls for $13 as January $70 calls adjusted out and up
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 2:40 Market Commentary
3) 13:20 Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Russell 2000)
4) 16:15 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, MSFT, ADBE, NFLX, GOOGL, FB, AAPL, CRM, QQQ (ETF)
5) 20:50 Stock Review – Software: NOW, DOCU, FSLY, COUP, OKTA, SHOP, BAND, VEEV, ZS, ZM
6) 23:50 Stock Review – Payments: V, MA, PYPL, SQ
7) 24:50 Stock Review – Semiconductors: NVDA, AMD, LRCX, AEIS, QRVO, SMH (ETF)
8) 27:55 Stock Review – General Ideas/Commentary: BABA, JD, PDD, CCS, LGIH, Z, XHB (ETF), ITB (ETF)
9) 30:10 Current Setups – NFLX, IDXX, STMP
10) 32:00 Conclusion/Summary