My job is to interpret what I see in the stock market and the market is forecasting a Donald Trump victory. That is one of the reasons why the market has been strong and will continue to be strong. Contrary to what you hear from almost everyone in the media, the market will NOT crash [...]
Back in April, I made a call that the Dow will hit 20,000 by year-end. I stick to this call and feel the market will surge higher in the fourth quarter for the following reasons: 1) Technicals – Since the Brexit event in June, the market has been under strong accumulation by the big institutions. [...]
Last Friday (Sept. 9), the market saw its biggest drop since Brexit and the same psychological pattern happened again: A huge spike in fear. I have said this over and over for the past few years. The market will have pullbacks and shakeouts, but it will not see a SUSTAINED correction if everyone is expecting [...]
One part of my investment philosophy is to gauge investor sentiment. Specifically, I like to use it from a contrarian point of view. In other words, I don't want to be bullish when everyone else is and vice versa. One problem that occurs frequently is there are so many different sentiment surveys that they often [...]
In early July, I mentioned a stock on my blog called Acacia Communications (Symbol: ACIA). I bought it for my clients and the stock has more than doubled since then. I received many emails asking me what I saw in the stock, so here is the anatomy of my trade: 1) (see chart) ACIA came [...]
Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest traders who ever lived. You can read more about him here. He has so many great quotes, but here are a few of my favorites: 1) The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. 2) Play the market [...]
Last Friday afternoon, Reuters ran a story about Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital. He is advising people to "sell everything" because "nothing here looks good." While I have tremendous respect for Mr. Gundlach, I completely disagree with this statement for the following reasons: 1) For a guy who is nicknamed the "Bond [...]
At the beginning of the month, I posted my 2016 Second Half Outlook. I know it is VERY early, but so far the blueprint is working out well: 1) The Brexit decline at the end of June may have been the last shakeout before the market finally breaks out of its two-years range. Many times before big [...]
I keep reading that we are in the 7th year of a Bull Market. I don't buy it! Why? Because we have been in a Bear Market for the past year. Although the S&P 500 didn't correct by the popular "Bear Market definition" of -20%, the majority of stocks got decimated beneath the surface. Energy [...]
In the past two years, the S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere, frustrating the majority of investors. We have seen three "V bottoms" (shown in the chart below) where the market shoots down about -10% (resulting in losses), only to grind right back up as if nothing happened. Also, beneath the surface, many sectors corrected [...]