Crazy Prediction
1) During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve stepped in to provide liquidity and took measures to possibly prevent the US from experiencing its worst depression since the 1930s. Whether we agree with what they did is not the point. In their view, the Fed did what they had to do to keep the banking system from collapsing and to help the economy get back on its feet again. 2) Now, in 2014, many [...]
2 Stocks That Could Be Higher By Year-End
Readers of my blog know that I have liked Netflix $NFLX for a long time. I continue to feel it will move higher over the next 6-12 months for the following reasons: 1) Fundamentals - The company has posted triple-digit earnings growth for the past 6 quarters. Their revenues have accelerated to a 25% growth rate and their margins continue to expand. Their subscriber growth still has huge potential, especially when they enter countries such [...]
Sentiment Turns Negative…Again!
For the past 2-3 years, a similar pattern has repeated itself in the financial markets. The major indexes start to break down towards their 50-day moving averages, the overall market starts to weaken (usually sparked by a geopolitical event), and then sentiment turns EXTREMELY BEARISH in a short period of time. It happened again over the past 2 weeks. Here are 3 examples: 1) The CNN Fear/Greed Index (measured from 0-100) moved from 95 to [...]
Reviewing Market Positives and Negatives
It’s important to keep an open mind when evaluating the stock market. It doesn’t make sense to always be Bullish or Bearish because the market is not always in an uptrend or a downtrend. It's simply best to do your homework, look objectively at both the positive and negative signs, and invest accordingly. That being said, let’s review the market’s recent action. NEGATIVE SIGNS: 1) All the major averages are below their 50-day moving averages [...]
A Great Time To Be Patriotic
I was very pleased to see the stock market make new highs today, but I still can't believe the misery I keep hearing. Instead of finding people encouraged by this rally, this seems to be the most depressing celebration of new highs I have ever seen in my 18 years of trading. I have a bunch of thoughts, so I'll just rattle them off: 1) For the first time in history, the majority of Americans [...]
Jesse Livermore’s Trading Rules Written in 1940
Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest traders who ever lived. You can read more about him here. Here are his trading rules written in 1940. You will find that many of them still apply today, proving that very little changes in the market over time. 1. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities. 2. Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during [...]