Short-term Cautious
As I have mentioned for the last year or two, I still think the Nasdaq Composite eventually gets to its old March 2000 high of around 5100-5200. It will probably get there over the next 6-18 months, however, it will not be an easy ride up. There will be pullbacks, shakeouts, and quick corrections along the way to keep the Bulls honest. Although I am bullish over the longer-term, in my Weekend Video I outline the [...]
Market Thoughts Into Year-End
I sent this note out to my clients earlier in the week. If you are interested in our Managed Account Products, please email me at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com. After QE-1 ended, the market dropped -17%. After QE-2 ended, the market dropped -21%. Now that Operation Twist/QE-3 is over, many believe the market will drop again. In my 18 years of trading, I have never seen the market move more on sentiment and psychology than I have seen [...]
Fox Business Video 10-16-14
The following Fox Business video is a market discussion with Charlie Gasparino, Liz Claman, and me. Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Follow me on Twitter @jfahmy Follow me on StockTwits @jfahmy
This is What a Crash Looks Like
For the past month, I have been cautious on the market for one main reason: Too much distribution. Since I first mentioned it on this blog, the institutional selling has accelerated and the Nasdaq Composite has now seen 15 distribution days in the past 31 trading sessions (since 9/3/14). I am NOT saying a crash is coming, nor am I trying to scare people. I am simply saying that there are warnings signs in our current [...]
4 Things To Do During Downtrends
This article is mostly for traders who vary their investment levels. If you are a passive long-term investor who is fully invested at all times, just realize that there are sacrifices. In other words, you might ride things up or down longer than you expect. That's why it's important to define yourself and have conviction in your strategy. Right now, the market is going through a downtrend. Some people call it a correction, a Bear Market, [...]
Continued Caution is Warranted
In a Blog Post on September 22, I wrote: "If you are a trader, there is nothing wrong with raising some cash and waiting for more positive signs to appear." Since then, the market has continued to see distribution (professional selling). Last Thursday and Friday (10/2 and 10/3), the market bounced from an oversold condition and I wrote another post describing What The Bulls Need To See. Specifically, the Bulls needed the gains from Thursday/Friday [...]