I am writing this blog post to offer words of encouragement and to hopefully help people learn from my past mistakes. Most people don’t like to admit their mistakes because we all want to pound our chest and let the world know how great we’re doing. I have no problem admitting that I used to struggle tremendously in corrective markets JUST LIKE THE ONE WE’RE IN NOW, until I made one simple adjustment. I’ve been [...]

Part of my investment philosophy is raising cash and sitting out during unhealthy markets. I've received several emails telling me "it's impossible to time the market" and "you're arrogant to claim you know when it's unhealthy." It's not called arrogance, it's called putting in the work, studying history, and having the confidence to act. If you learn ONE thing from reading this article, I want it to be this: When the market is below its [...]

1) The first week of 2016 was the worst 5-day start in the history of the stock market. The non-stop selling caught many market participants by surprise. While most were expecting some form of a bounce during the second week of January, the selling continued. It was mostly fueled by: slowing fundamentals, poor technicals, lack of leadership, global economic slowdown and complacency based on many sentiment measures. 2) Finally, on January 20th, some signs of [...]

I'm beginning to think the weekends are giving people amnesia about the stock market. We started this year with two BRUTAL weeks of selling. After the MLK long weekend, the market gapped up the morning of January 19th and sentiment seemed VERY complacent. It was as if the long weekend made everyone forget all the selling during the first two weeks of the year. That day, I told my friend we need to see the [...]

Here are excerpts from the memo I sent to clients this evening. It's a summary of the market so far this year and some possibilities going forward: I am very pleased that we survived the first 2 weeks of 2016 with our heavy cash position. The first week of January was the worst 5-day start in the history of the stock market. I was expecting some form of a bounce during the second week, however, the warning signs continued to [...]

I received several emails over the weekend from people who are really struggling and panicking about this market. This is not the end of the world. This a correction, plain and simple! The biggest challenge most people are having with their investments is: Should I just leave everything alone? Or should I cash some out? The reality is that people want the best of both worlds, and that is not very realistic. In other words, [...]