I started writing a blog post about the different market scenarios that could occur after the election and I quickly realized that anything can happen. For example, a Clinton win could result in a relief rally or a drop in the market if the recent selling is due to something other than the election (inflation, higher rates, Brexit effect, Italian referendum, or something unknown to us right now). A Trump win could result in a [...]

My job is to interpret what I see in the stock market and the market is forecasting a Donald Trump victory. That is one of the reasons why the market has been strong and will continue to be strong. Contrary to what you hear from almost everyone in the media, the market will NOT crash if Trump wins, and the market will NOT decline sharply if he does well in the upcoming debates and surges [...]

Back in April, I made a call that the Dow will hit 20,000 by year-end. I stick to this call and feel the market will surge higher in the fourth quarter for the following reasons: 1) Technicals – Since the Brexit event in June, the market has been under strong accumulation by the big institutions. The consolidation of the past 4-6 weeks is showing very few signs of selling, telling me this is a healthy [...]

Last Friday (Sept. 9), the market saw its biggest drop since Brexit and the same psychological pattern happened again: A huge spike in fear. I have said this over and over for the past few years. The market will have pullbacks and shakeouts, but it will not see a SUSTAINED correction if everyone is expecting it and prepared for it. It's amazing how on EVERY sharp decline, we see a spike in put protection, a [...]

One part of my investment philosophy is to gauge investor sentiment. Specifically, I like to use it from a contrarian point of view. In other words, I don't want to be bullish when everyone else is and vice versa. One problem that occurs frequently is there are so many different sentiment surveys that they often conflict. So what do I do? I talk to people. This includes traders, other money managers, potential investors, friends, family, [...]

In early July, I mentioned a stock on my blog called Acacia Communications (Symbol: ACIA). I bought it for my clients and the stock has more than doubled since then. I received many emails asking me what I saw in the stock, so here is the anatomy of my trade: 1) (see chart) ACIA came public in a very tough market for IPOs. There has been a substantial decrease in IPOs this year, so the [...]