Real Vision Interview – September 2016
The following Real Vision interview was filmed on September 28, 2016, before the Presidential election. Prior to posting it here, it was only available through Real Vision's paid subscription site. They allowed me to post it because of its accuracy and they invited me back for another interview soon. I am grateful that many of the calls in the interview turned out to be correct and, to be honest, not much has changed over a [...]
Obsessed
Carl Icahn is one of the best investors ever. He says in order to be the best at something, you have to be a little obsessed. One thing I am obsessed about is achieving superior returns in the stock market. The first question you might ask is: “Isn’t everyone?” Surprisingly, the answer is no. The majority of people don’t want to put in the work, they are risk averse, and they rarely like to step [...]
There’s a Big Difference Between What People Say and What They Do.
I received a great email last week about sentiment. The question was: “What do you do when two different sentiment measures conflict?” For example, the NAAIM survey (a measure of active manager investment levels) has been declining lately, but Investors Intelligence (a measure of newsletter sentiment) shows an increasing number of bulls. See charts below. My first answer is the price action of leading growth stocks overrides ALL sentiment measures. In other words, that is [...]
The Perfect Storm
There is something big going on in the stock market. It’s something bigger than most people realize. I like to call it The Perfect Storm. It’s a favorable combination of technicals, fundamentals, global growth, interest rates, sentiment, a pro-business government, and a new technological revolution. The reason I’m excited about it is I’ve been around the market for 20 years and I’ve learned that you have to take advantage of these healthy situations while they [...]
The Four Types of People in this Market
1) The first type is the investor who is sitting out, mostly in cash, barely invested, or refuses to participate. They either feel the market is overvalued or we are about to crash any day. It’s impossible to help these people because they have already made up their mind about what the market SHOULD do rather than focusing on what it is ACTUALLY doing. For example, a potential client I spoke to said he wouldn’t [...]
Three Reasons for the Strength in Biotech
I screen the market every night looking for strong fundamental and technical stocks. One thing I try to identify is themes and leading sectors. Over the past two months, I have noticed more and more Biotech stocks showing up on my screens. Not only are they setting up technically, but they are also breaking out and producing strong gains. There are three main reasons for this: 1) During the Presidential election, both sides discussed lowering [...]