Market Thoughts for 2024
1) I see a +10-15% gain for the S&P 500 in 2024. I am basing this on the incredible strength we saw in November and December of 2023. The reason for this strength was the Federal Reserve signaling they were done with their interest rate hiking cycle. The market is a discounting mechanism and tends to trade on what will happen 6 to 9 months from now. In other words, the strength we saw at [...]
Learn to Make Decisions
Here is the Market Note I sent to Education Members on 12/17/23: After running my Educational Product for almost 4 years, I am surprised that the recent strength in the market caused more stress for people than the bear market of 2022. I received more emails from members in November than I did during the entire 10-month bear market in 2022. This is very strange because the market did nothing but go down for 10 [...]
Another Thing Going for the Bulls
In early November, I wrote a blog post discussing four reasons for a year-end rally. They included: 1) The big institutions were coming back into the market because the Fed signaled they are done raising interest rates. 2) Sentiment. Most people are bearish and underinvested. 3) Seasonality. November and December are historically two of the strongest months. 4) Technicals. Two O’Neil follow through days, a Zweig Breath Thrust, and the major indexes regaining their 50-day [...]
Four Reasons for a Year-End Rally
Here are the reasons I am expecting continued strength into the end of the year. 1) The big institutions are back! Since they control the market, it’s important to analyze what they are doing, and they came back last week with strong volume. The main reason was they interpreted the Federal Reserve is done with their current rate-hiking cycle. That doesn’t mean the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, but it does mean stability for [...]
Can history repeat itself 20 years later?
Above, you will find a chart that compares the Nasdaq Composite of 2003 vs. 2023. I was inspired to look into this when I realized the market bottomed on October 10, 2002, and then bottomed recently on October 13, 2022, almost to the EXACT date 20 years later! When I looked into this further, I saw even more similarities, which are numbered below the chart. I realize that history doesn't always repeat itself, but it [...]
The Stock Market Game Changer
This past week, the market sent a loud and clear message that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a game changer. Many companies are being completely repriced because of the revolution in AI, and when we look back at 2023, many will point to last week as the pivotal moment of the year. Now, before you accuse me of being overly dramatic, please hear me out. Every great market throughout history has been fueled by an invention [...]