I tweeted on Tuesday night (4/16/24) that I feel the bulk of this recent market pullback is over. Before I continue, I want to remind everyone that I don't regularly update this blog. I actively manage portfolios for clients and my investment levels vary. If you would like more regular updates and analysis, you can sign up to become an Educational Member. 1) Since last May, I've been positive on the markets. That's when we [...]

I’ve been aggressively invested in many leading growth stocks since the two follow-through days and the Zweig Breadth Thrust we saw in early November 2023. I discussed three of the stocks on the IBD Podcast on November 1, 2023, and they have seen very strong gains since that date: NVDA +112.1% , UBER +75.8% , MSFT +21.7%. I also wrote about the bullish factors in these two blog posts in early November 2023: Four Reasons [...]

1) I see a +10-15% gain for the S&P 500 in 2024. I am basing this on the incredible strength we saw in November and December of 2023. The reason for this strength was the Federal Reserve signaling they were done with their interest rate hiking cycle. The market is a discounting mechanism and tends to trade on what will happen 6 to 9 months from now. In other words, the strength we saw at [...]

Here is the Market Note I sent to Education Members on 12/17/23: After running my Educational Product for almost 4 years, I am surprised that the recent strength in the market caused more stress for people than the bear market of 2022. I received more emails from members in November than I did during the entire 10-month bear market in 2022. This is very strange because the market did nothing but go down for 10 [...]

In early November, I wrote a blog post discussing four reasons for a year-end rally. They included: 1) The big institutions were coming back into the market because the Fed signaled they are done raising interest rates. 2) Sentiment. Most people are bearish and underinvested. 3) Seasonality. November and December are historically two of the strongest months. 4) Technicals. Two O’Neil follow through days, a Zweig Breath Thrust, and the major indexes regaining their 50-day [...]

Here are the reasons I am expecting continued strength into the end of the year. 1) The big institutions are back! Since they control the market, it’s important to analyze what they are doing, and they came back last week with strong volume. The main reason was they interpreted the Federal Reserve is done with their current rate-hiking cycle. That doesn’t mean the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, but it does mean stability for [...]