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Updated Market Thoughts (4/20/25)
Here are some of the notes I provided for my Educational Members over the weekend. If you’re interested in more content like this, first time members can email support@joefahmy.com for a discount code. Thank you.
1) Don’t forget that the major indexes are still below their 200-day moving averages. For me, this means remain defensive.
2) The technical break we had over the past two months will take time to recover from. My guess is that the next sustained powertrend will occur in the second half of this year. This means patience and discipline are still required.
3) Of course, I will be open-minded. If we get more clarity on tariffs and/or accommodative measures from the Fed, I have no problem changing my mind if the facts change.
4) In the meantime, I will continue to curate a list of relative strength growth stocks. These will have a high probability of becoming big winners once the next uptrend begins. However, keep in mind that breakouts rarely work in corrective markets. For me, it’s a lot of observing for now. Continue to be patient and don’t have FOMO. There will be plenty of time to make money once we see healthier conditions.
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.
Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Market Note to Members (3/26/25)
Here is the note I sent to my Educational Members earlier today. If you’re interested in more content like this, first time members can email support@joefahmy.com for a discount code. Thank you.
One of the biggest challenges I have with this Educational Product is that people constantly want ideas. The problem is the stock market is not always going to be healthy, and I don’t like forcing ideas just to keep people happy. I think many people forget that the stock market actually has corrections and that individual stocks can drop considerably (and sometimes these individual stocks never come back). Don’t forget the 80/50 rule that I discussed in the Seminar Videos. 80% of big winners correct 50% and 50% of big winners correct 80%.
The title of my 2025 Preview was “Keep Your Expectations Realistic.” I mentioned that after two big years, don’t be surprised to see a pullback this year, a range, corrective action, etc. In other words, chop and consolidation. When I ran a webinar in early January reminding members that we are likely to see a 10-15% correction this year, so many members were upset because they didn’t want to hear this. They kept telling me “Joe, we just want you to be bullish” as if I can control the market, lol. I get it. The past two years have been great, and no one wants to hear that the party is going to pause for a bit.
Now, the same thing is happening. In last Monday’s webinar, I mentioned that we still haven’t seen a valid follow through day on the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 and people didn’t want to hear it. They said but (insert name) says this, but (insert name) says that. While I highly respect these people, I don’t care what they say. I care what the market is telling me. Right now, we are still below the 200-day on the Nasdaq Composite, and we have not seen any strong volume from the institutions. If you don’t care about volume so that it fits your narrative and justifies you being on margin, then do what works for you. I have MY rules, and I have to stick to MY discipline.
Again, my style is not for everyone nor am I imposing it on anyone. After doing this for almost 30 years, I’ve realized that you’re going to make the majority of your money during powertrends, which occur 2-3 times per year. The rest of the time, it’s going to suck (I don’t know how else to put it). That’s why managing a portfolio of individual stocks is difficult because it involves decision making, and most people want to be loaded up on stocks and watch them go up forever, as if they are ENTITILED to receiving gains from the stock market all the time. I hate to break it to you, but that’s not how the market works. Once you accept this concept, you will have much more clarity in your approach to the market.
I can’t say this enough: I am BEYOND grateful for all the members and for your confidence in me. I honestly can’t put into words how much I appreciate you and your continued trust in me. However, I’m not going to tell you what you want to hear just so you can justify your positioning in the market. I’m going to be real and honest, and if my interpretation of the market is wrong, I will do my best to correct it quickly. Again, please be patient and show some discipline until we see more consistency from the big institutions because THEY control the market. A better market could be right around the corner, but it will require more patience until we see the healthier conditions required for a SUSTAINED new uptrend. I will discuss this further in tonight’s MidWeek Video. Thank you and good luck.
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com.
Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained on this blog constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned on this blog. The stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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