These are not predictions. Just random thoughts going through my mind. My 2023 Outlook will be published later this week.
1) I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5-10% decline to start 2023. Many people say that this is the consensus, but I’ve talked to more retail traders who are fully invested and saying “it’s too late to sell,” than people who are defensive in this market. Keep in mind there’s a difference between what people say and what they do.
2) Million dollar ideas: Spaghetti colored Tupperware. A dating site for people over 60 called Napchat.
3) Biotech (XBI) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) in 2023. Many stocks in this group are showing great relative strength and very few people have exposure to this sector. My favorite ideas are AXSM and AMLX. CINC is my speculative sleeper play, as I am expecting better data in the second half of the year. (Full Disclosure: I own all three of these positions at the time of this writing).
4) The Fed will pause their rate-hiking cycle in March.
5) The market could bottom in March because the past three Bear Markets (2003, 2009, 2020) all bottomed in March.
6) Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should be changed regularly and for the same reason.
7) I will start a podcast this year and get Johnny Depp on as a guest.
8) Bitcoin’s chart looks like it wants to fall off a cliff. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub 10k print later this year. (Full Disclosure: no position).
9) When the market eventually bottoms, many will be too negative and not believe it. Stay open-minded! Also, make sure to protect your confidence so you’ll be mentally ready to take advantage of the next group of winning growth stocks.
10) One of my favorite market quotes: “There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly built into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.” — Jesse Livermore
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