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Late Night Thoughts On The Election

I’m writing this post very late on Tuesday night with the Dow Futures down over -700 points. It’s late, we’re all exhausted, but I’d like to make a few points:

1) If you are being a drama queen about this election, please stop! This isn’t “the worst thing that has happened to you in your life.” Enough with the cataclysmic doom bullshit and needing to move to another country. Grow up! You’re embarrassing yourself if you think that way.

2) Many people are upset that Trump won and they are letting their emotions get in the way of rational thought. Just think of all the things this country has been through over the past 250 years and we’re still here standing and flourishing. No ONE person will bring that down. There’s a reason our country has a Checks and Balances system in place.

3) With regards to the stock market, I’m a firm believer in never making an important decision at a heightened state of emotion. If you are too nervous right now, take a step back, maybe take a few days to let the dust settle and go over your longer-term financial goals. Don’t do anything irrational or make a quick decision, especially if you’re not thinking clearly.

4) I’ve read about 200 articles over the past month that all say the same thing: The market will crash if Trump wins. First, these articles were mostly written by the mainstream media who hate Trump. Second, the market rarely does what everyone thinks. Will we see volatility? Of course! But tough to see a crash when the economy is still strong.

5) One last psychological factor that many people are underestimating: Career risk. There are so many underperforming money managers that are DYING for this market to come down and bail them out for the year. In other words, active managers have been struggling for the past few years and the market turning negative makes them look better and helps them keep their jobs. My feeling is the market won’t bail them out. In fact, if it drops too much, it will most likely be a tremendous buying opportunity.

Again, it’s very late and I’m just rattling these thoughts off the top of my head. The Fed will not be raising rates in December and my feeling is Mike Pence and Paul Ryan will be running the country behind the scenes under Donald’s supervision. If true, I think this scenario would be acceptable to both parties. Good luck, keep your composure and don’t react on emotion.

I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com

By |2016-12-15T13:43:08+00:00November 9th, 2016|

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