I keep reading that we are in the 7th year of a Bull Market. I don’t buy it! Why? Because we have been in a Bear Market for the past year. Although the S&P 500 didn’t correct by the popular “Bear Market definition” of -20%, the majority of stocks got decimated beneath the surface. Energy stocks corrected -50%, Biotech -40%, Financials -25%, and Small and Mid Cap stocks -25% over the past year. In addition, the most widely held stock Apple is 25% off its highs. Don’t laugh because this has ruined the morale of many investors.
To me, the definition of a Bear Market has more to do with time than percentage decline. Why? Because time kills more people than price. In other words, prolonged periods of market prices bleeding and bleeding hurts more people than if prices drop quickly and snap right back. I honestly feel that the past 12-months (mid-2015 through mid-2016) was a Bear Market and we are JUST STARTING a new Bull Market with the highs made in early July 2016.
There are many recent “Blastoff Indicators” that my friend Mike Cintolo of the Cabot Newsletter summarized very well in this post. Take a look at it. It might make you reconsider where we are in the overall big picture. Good luck!
I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com