I stick to my call that the Dow will reach 20,000 by year-end. Do I think it will be a straight line up? Of course not. Will we see shakeouts, pullbacks and quick corrections along the way? Absolutely. However, since I made the call (around Dow 17,500), the market has been very resilient, especially considering all the negative headlines: Terror attacks in Brussels, Fed speakers hinting at a rate hike as soon as April, and the failed oil talks in Doha. Also, last Friday the market was flat after 4 mega cap companies reported disappointing earnings: Google, Microsoft, Starbucks and Visa.
One more thing to consider, all this negative news is coming AFTER the market’s strong gains since mid-February. In other words, any of these headlines would be a perfect excuse for profit taking but the market doesn’t want to budge. In addition, breadth continues to improve (the NYSE Advance/Decline line made a new all-time high on Friday) as most investors remain bearish and/or skeptical.
Over the weekend, @ukarlewitz summarized the recent price action way better than I could. His blog post is worth the read: The Fat Pitch
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